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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RWilson who wrote (1376)	4/14/1998 2:28:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6439

" We are gathering info and trying to assess valuation parameters". Good. So tell me, what is the value of MO's food and beverage business? I think it's worth $36.25 to $40 a share ( Read post #1285 ). Are you trying to argue that MO's domestic and international tobacco business is worth nothing? To be sure, that is the value the market is placing on it these days and that's why I have been an aggressive buyer under $40! No one has any inkling here about what type of excise taxes or penalties will be imposed by a settlement! Not only is any type of settlement questionable here, but it is questionable whether Congress will be able to pass anything substantial at all! We are in the realm of the unknown, what the Street calls Uncertainty. And you want to place a valuation parameter on the effects of what may or may not be passed by Congress. I will stick with what I do know here rather than speculate on the unknown. Given the value of MO's food and beverage business, I think we are already pretty close to the bottom of MO's stock price. ( MO is earning tons of money in their international tobacco business.) We are right now in the midst of maximum pessimism in regard to the tobacco industry. Your preoccupation in comparing MO's valuation after Marlboro Friday with the PE today sounds akin to the bearish claims that the market would fall once the dividend yield on the S&P fell below 3%! The valuation back then was of course cheaper for just about every stock! MO's MULTIPLE IS ONE OF THE LOWEST AROUND IN THIS STOCK MARKET! " I think you have to show liability relief"? I think not, considering that everything is up in the air here and nothing is certain as to the outcome! ( MO need not pay a penny here except for cases it loses in court.) Moreover, those analysts you take so seriously at Merrill and Goldman are short term players and speculators who have no advantage over a 25 year old MBA in this uncharted territory that the tobacco industry finds itself embroiled in! It is a mistake to reduce or lower estimates on factors that may never get realized. You have every right to be upset and angry. But don't panic. The fight has just begun in earnest. The battle lines are just begginning to get drawn here.

To: RWilson who wrote (1376)	4/14/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6439

RW: The discrepancy between Perception vs Reality is where big money is made or lost in the stock market. The Perception here is that Congress and the President are in the early stages of passing a bill that will devastate the tobacco industry. The Reality is that such a bill ( the Mcain bill ) will not become law. Whatever is passed will contain strong liability protection or the vultures will not have their money to spend. Intimidation won't work here and opposition to enactment of the Mcain bill will prevent its passage. Just remember: "they" need the money by June and won't get it without the approval of the tobacco industry. Raising the price of a pack of cigarettes will not give the vultures the money they need for their programs. Uncertainty here has created an unique opportunity. One can buy MO's domestic and international tobacco business at this point for nothing. The Reality is that it is not worth nothing.