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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nero who wrote (16253)	4/13/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Nero, I apologize to you and the rest for not helping to avoid the "whipsaw effect." If it's any consolation, I probably got "sawed" as cleanly as anyone on the puts I have open. RWS and Carl H. definitely get top honors for their super read on the completion of this late day upmove. I hope you and the rest pay them heed on their wave counts as we remain embarked on this voyage for the big game. Intraday, my reads aren't always as accurate as they need to be, but after I have a few hours after the close to reflect on the action, I can usually get my bearings pretty well on target. If I haven't convinced them (RWS & Carl) of what I see, then I would also do well to pause for their agreement!! I believe we're all 3 in agreement now that the last upwave preceding Big 3 of 3 down is complete. And if you've spent time analyzing how wave theory applies to the market, you understand that we're staring what is usually the bulk of a sizeable down move right in the eyes. Sure, we can have an even smaller degree wave down, followed by one last smaller degree up, but the key point to all of this is that the sizeable move we've been looking for to the downside is within hours of unfolding. I'll take this opportunity now to point out another large pattern I've noticed that has nearly completed, and to a perfection. This pattern when activated will not only solidify the big down we have coming, but will also give us extremely reliable guideposts as to how far the down move will carry the market. The pattern is an old standby, a large Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern. To see it, it would help to have a 30 minute chart going back to March 30th, but the pattern is so large and well developed that you can probably make it out on a daily chart too. the left shoulder began on 3/30 at 4pm, and finished at 10:30am 4/1. From there, the head formed, and in near perfect symmetry peaked at 10:00am on 4/6, then moved down to complete a lower neckline on 4/8 at 3pm. This lower neckline is important and signifies that this is a strong reversal pattern with deeper potential targets. From 3pm on 4/8 til 11:30am on 4/13 (today), the market finished the right shoulder. In a H&S pattern, prices often rally sharply after the right shoulder is formed in a "short-running" rally, as was painfully repeated today. Thus, the pattern seems to be complete, and the only thing required now to set the pattern's downside targets in motion is a convincing break of the lower neckline in place from the low at 3pm on 4/8, which is 1105 on the June S&P. When that number is convincingly broken, 2 targets will be activated, an initial one and a final one. The initial one targets the 1045 area on the June S&P, and would be a likely area for Wave 3 down to complete. The final target is set at 1109, and may be a likely area for Wave 5 down to terminate. These are the new targets I will be utilizing as the most recent pattern formed generates the most potent targeted reversal points. But keep in mind these targets require the break of 1105 to be activated. Assuming we take out 1105 early on tomorrow, I believe these targets are both achievable by expiration, with the bulk of the move coming in the next 2 days. Maybe the wider trading limits will come in handy on Wednesday after all, if only to scare the #@$@!!! out of the little and big guys alike. Best wishes to all on capturing your share of the moves ahead. David

To: Nero who wrote (16253)	4/14/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

Nero,alas my typing skills falter in the excitement of observing the market players in the market. Please accept apologies in advance for improper format and also accept thank you for enlightening critique.I do know that learning curve is getting better. Whipsaw is perhaps too slow a term for my observation of this volatile market. Think it perhaps important to realize the frenzy of the hunt is why we come to the field-enjoy it-allow yourself the opportunity to be human-error and then react having learned. My distant observation of this thread's thought processes are most impressed with the lack of ego and constant appreciation of reappraisal. It takes a wise man to change his mind! I am pacing myself to be within sight of your knowledge-in the long term-thanks for the words May you all catch three of three in c bob