There is nothing on RNWK in this report, but I thought you guys might find this interesting, since it talks about a bunch of other internet stocks:
Internet/New Media & PC Software/Hardware (I/CPR): Two-Week Preview
Mary Meeker / mmeeker@ms.com / (212) 761-8042 Date: April 13, 1998
Gillian Munson / gmunson@ms.com / (212) 761-6070
Type: Industry Overview
______________________________________________________________________
KEY POINTS
Wednesday, April 15, Compaq (CPQ, $24, ++) is expected to report
CQ1:98 earnings before the market opens and host a conference call.
On March 6, after the market close, CPQ pre-released that CQ1:98
results would be below expectations. CPQ indicated that CQ1 revenue
would be flat Y/Y near $5.3B (and down 28% Q/Q). The company also
indicated that CQ1 EPS would be near break-even (compared with $0.27
in CQ1:97 and $0.42 in CQ4:97) -- this compared with a CQ1 First Call
mean estimate of $0.35 on consensus revenue near $6.2B (up 18% Y/Y and
down 15% Q/Q). C1998E First Call EPS was $1.68; and $2.10 for C1999E.
CPQ indicated that its revenue shortfall was related to demand and
pricing pressures in the North American commercial market. The First
Call mean estimate for CQ1:98 is now $0.01 (vs. $0.27 reported in
CQ1:97).
(++ Ratings and estimates for this company have been removed from
consideration in this report because under firm policy and/or
applicable law Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and/or its affiliates may be
precluded form issuing such information with respect to this company
at this time.)
Wednesday, April 15, Apple (AAPL, $25, Neutral) is expected to report
CQ1 earnings after the market closes and host a conference call. We
look for AAPL to report CQ1:98 EPS of $0.21 (vs. ($1.42) in CQ1:97,
down 43% Q/Q) on revenue of $1.4B (down 11% Y/Y, down 10% Q/Q), a
gross margin of 23%, and a 5% effective tax rate. The First Call mean
EPS estimate is $0.16.
Thursday, April 16, @Home (ATHM, $31, Outperform) is expected to
report C1Q earnings after the market closes and host a conference
call. We look for revenue of $5.0 million (up 36% quarter-to-quarter
from $3.7 million in C4Q97), total expenses of $17.9 million (up 6%
quarter-to-quarter from $16.8 million in C4Q), and a net loss of $11.7
million, or $(0.10) per share (flat with a loss of $0.10 in C1Q97).
The First Call mean estimate is a loss of $0.10 per share. We look
for 83,000 subscribers at the end of C1Q (up from 2,900 a year ago and
up 66% quarter-to-quarter, or up about 33,000 sequentially) and homes
passed of 5.5 million, up 22% from 4.5 million at the end of C4Q97
Thursday, April 16, Excite (XCIT, $63, not rated) is expected to
report C1Q earnings and host a conference call after the market close.
The First Call mean estimate for C1Q is a loss of ($0.35) per share,
vs. a loss of ($0.37) per share in C1Q97. Excite reported C4Q97
revenue of $18.7 million (up 187% year-over-year, up 30%
sequentially), opex of $17.8 million (up 15% year-over-year, up 21%
quarter-to-quarter), and an operating loss of $0.22 per share.
Tuesday, April 21, Microsoft (MSFT, $89, Outperform) and the
Department of Justice are scheduled to present oral arguments to the
Court of Appeals panel in Washington, D.C. This hearing is the result
of Microsoft's appeal of Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's preliminary
injunction that required Microsoft to unbundle Internet Explorer from
Windows 95. Though we do not expect an immediate ruling from the
appeals panel, it will be another key milestone in the ongoing
Microsoft/DOJ engagement.
Tuesday, April 21, CNET (CNWK, $30, Outperform) is expected to report
C1Q earnings and host a conference call after the market close. We
have been estimating revenue of $11.5 million (up 82% year-over-year,
up 11% sequentially), opex of $17.2 million (up 46% year-over-year,
down 8% quarter-to-quarter), and a net loss of ($0.39) per share (or a
net loss of $5.5 million), vs. a net loss of ($044) in C1Q97. The
First Call mean estimate is an operating loss of $0.40 per share for
C1Q. Our revenue estimate could prove to be $500K to $1MM high, while
we believe that CNET focused on opex control in the quarter,
protecting EPS. We think it's key for CNET to begin to demonstrate
Q/Q revenue momentum in C2Q.
Wednesday, April 22, Microsoft (MSFT, $89, Outperform) is expected to
report C1Q earnings after the market closes and host a conference
call. Microsoft announced on March 24 that it expects to report C1Q98
results ahead of expectations.
The company expects EPS of about $0.48 (up 23% Y/Y), ahead of our
previous estimate and the previous First Call mean estimate of $0.44.
The First Call mean is now $0.48. The company also expects Y/Y
revenue growth in the quarter to be closer to 18%, ahead of our
previous 13% estimate - note that revenue comparisons are tough, as
revenue grew 45% Y/Y in the previous year, while EPS rose 79%.
Microsoft also expects C2Q98 EPS to come in a few pennies ahead of our
previous estimate and the previous First Call mean estimate of $0.43.
As a result, we raised our C1Q98 EPS estimate to $0.48 (up 22% Y/Y)
from $0.44, and our C1Q revenue estimate to $3.8B (up 18% Y/Y) from
$3.6B (up 13% Y/Y). We also raised our C2Q98 EPS estimate to $0.47
(up 17% Y/Y) from $0.43, and our C2Q revenue estimate to $3.8B (up 19%
Y/Y) from $3.6B (up 14% Y/Y). We maintained our F1999 (June) EPS
estimate of $2.05 on revenue of $17.7B (up 24% Y/Y).
Wednesday, April 22, VeriSign (VRSN, $44, Outperform) is expected to
report C1Q earnings. We look for revenue of $3.5 million (up 174%
year-over-year, up 6% quarter-to-quarter), opex of $9.9 million (up
75% year-over-year, up 3% quarter-to-quarter), and EPS of a loss of
($0.30) (vs. a loss of ($0.21) per share in C1Q97). The First Call
mean estimate is a loss of ($0.28) per share. |
