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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (16321)	4/14/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I have given up trying to call a top to this market. Isaac Newton said after the South Sea Bubble that he could chart the course of the planets but he could not chart the course of human folly, or something like that. I thought everyone was crazy when the Dow crossed 7,000. But rather than joining into the mindless bullishness, I have decided to hold my established bear position (short SPY, some shorts against the box, and a large position in BEARX). Since I can't call anything (as I have learned through some very hard financial knocks), I am not going to add to my positions at this time. I do think that among the Marketgauge indicators there are quite a number that will go seriously negative when a downtrend is established. These, combined with others that are already bearish (fundamentals such as dividend yield and P/E; "smart money" such as specialist and member positions rate change) should provide a powerful confirmation that a decline is well under way. At that point I might buy some puts. But more likely I would just buy more BEARX. Sorry this isn't a straight answer to your question. If I could see straight I might answer straight!