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To: PaulM who wrote (9950)	4/14/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116762

Markets nearing peak????????? afr.com.au

To: PaulM who wrote (9950)	4/14/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116762

Paul - Hey, I didn't say it was the best of all possible worlds either. Everything is Hunky Dory now because the middle class feels secure. The proof of this is in the indexes of consumer sentiment and in the Presidential approval ratings. Both way up there. Let the middle class start to feel squeezed and we will have friction again over social spending. Also, the programs are generous and as long as there is no inflation those existing on them will be content. Productivity has been above historical norms and we may see regression to those norms. If you are referring to the economy rather than earnings when you talk about HIGHER growth, then higher growth is probably not particularly welcome by Wall Street right now given the current conditions in the labor markets. I don't think we have had comparable levels of inflation since the early 60's, if then. But anyway, even if all you say is true, public participation in the stock market was far lower in those times than they are now. Many people do not care what the P/E ratio is, if they even know WHAT it is. They will keep on pouring the money in as long as they are not getting hurt. When they start getting hurt, and hurt consistently, then it is not unlikely we will see gold soar. Given the current "mania" (which may be a poor choice of terms, because I don't think the interest in investing is temporary) there is no telling what could happen if John Q. Public gets his undies in a bunch over the protection of his assets. I hope to respond to the excellent analyses that Gabriela posted later on. regards - Tom