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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (1647)	4/14/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil Cardoso would lose most in Motta departure Reuters, Tuesday, April 14, 1998 at 15:42 By John Miller SAO PAULO, April 14 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso stands to lose much more than an effective cabinet member if ailing Communications Minister Sergio Motta is forced to resign for health reasons. Political analysts say Motta's departure would leave Cardoso without a trusted political operator at a time when he needs one the most -- during an election year with key constitutional reforms stalled in a stubborn Congress. Motta, 57, is widely seen as Brazil's premier power broker. Nicknamed "the bulldog" for his stocky frame and relentless drive, Motta was instrumental in Cardoso's presidential victory in 1994. The minister was admitted to a Sao Paulo hospital last week for treatment of a chronic pulmonary disease that has dogged him for months. Over the weekend, Motta was rushed into intensive care where he has been breathing with the help of a respirator. Political observers say it is still too early for the government to talk publicly about a permanent replacement for Motta, Cardoso's closest and most influential cabinet member. But an interim minister has already been appointed and some doubt whether Motta's stubborn persistence will get him through his latest ailment. While Motta has proven himself a capable administrator overseeing the privatization of Brazil's massive telecommunications sector, it is his political talents that would be missed the most, analysts said. His deteriorating health could not have come at a worse time for Cardoso, who faces re-election in October and the serious challenge of pushing controversial pension and tax reform through Congress. The reforms, analysts say, are crucial to completing the mission Cardoso set out for himself when he took office in 1995 -- to turn Brazil's basket-case economy into a star emerging market performer. "Motta leaving would be like the government taking from the field of battle its most powerful weapon," said Murillo Aragao, political consultant at Arko Advice in Brasilia. "That would leave Cardoso to face the crucial social security votes in Congress and his own re-election without his most important political operator," Aragao said. Cardoso, a former university professor, and Motta, a former businessman, have shared a "good cop, bad cop" relationship over the past three decades. Cardoso's trademark civility contrasts sharply with Motta's outspoken aggressiveness, which has often hit close to home for Cardoso. Motta once remarked that Cardoso's wife Ruth was engaging in "social masturbation" as head of a government social program. But Motta's unflinching loyalty to Cardoso himself has allowed the president to forgive such indiscretion. Cardoso once referred to Motta as "a force of nature" that could not be controlled. Cardoso's re-election in October is seen as a fairly safe bet with or without Motta. But the minister's adept political maneuvering would still be sorely missed, analysts said. For example, Motta's ability to unite Cardoso's often fractious alliance of political parties would go a long way to make Cardoso appear in control and truly "presidential" in the run-up to the election. Analysts discount charges that Motta has resorted to vote-buying to work his political magic. Rather, they say Motta's modus operandi relies more on a mix of pork-barrel politics and well-timed threats. "In Brazil, most of us take pity on our enemies, but Motta does not. He has the mind of a businessman," Arko Advice's Aragao said. "He is the kind of guy who would say, 'If you don't vote for the government, I will retaliate and complicate your life with bureaucracy'." Some political analysts say the outspoken and often bombastic Motta is simply irreplaceable. "Other people have the technical skills to carry out cabinet functions, but they don't have the political force that is still necessary to get things done," said Carlos Lopes, a political analyst at Santa Fe Ideias in Brasilia. "The government is really at an impasse." john.miller@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service