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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (18788)4/14/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 70976
 
Teri, you said >today he seemed to predict Dow 35,000 (?)<

Without fear of contradiction I predict DOW 35,000 by 2015.
We'll probably get there a little sooner, based on an average
yearly increase of 10%.
See you then.<ggg>

GM



To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (18788)4/14/1998 11:03:00 PM
From: MileHigh  Respond to of 70976
 
Teri regarding,

New subject...Harry Dent was on CNBC today, he has a new book, something about
the booming 2000's...I just started his older book, called "The Great Boom Ahead".
Anyway, today he seemed to predict Dow 35,000 (?), based in large part on the baby
boomer spending/saving phenomenon. Have you given that idea much thought? Your
thoughts on any of this?


Yes I have thought about this and I am probably not the only one to realize this. I have read his Great Boom Ahead book and my thought is this...Quite simply if millions of baby boomers contribute to their 401K accounts like clockwork week in and week out and peg that money to go into equities AND the mutual fund managers by virtue of their prospectus or investment style of being 100% invested in the market, then these MM's have to buy equities day in and day out....That is the premise of his whole book...That's it!! Simple, baby boomers every week are contributing money to their 401K's earmarked for stocks and the MM's in return have to invest this money...THAT is what is going to drive this market higher....

MileHigh



To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (18788)4/15/1998 6:28:00 AM
From: w0z  Respond to of 70976
 
**OT**
Hi Teri! You wrote "Anyway, today he seemed to predict Dow 35,000 (?), based in large part on the baby boomer spending/saving phenomenon."

By when? It's just a matter of time and average returns to go from 9000 to 35,000:

10 years at 14.5%, 15 years at 9.5%, 20 years at 7.0% Take your pick!



To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (18788)4/19/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Terry D  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Hey Boss -
Some reassuring words on the PC side from the eternal optimist Andy Neff

Which Way Did We Go. Investors are always focused on change at the
margin, so here's a biggie: We have not cut an earnings estimate so far in this earnings season. (and, in fact, we've increased estimates for Apple). Moreover, the second surprise for us so far this quarter is that - with the exception of some pronounced weakness in Asia - sales results have been in line or better than expected for Apple Computer, Seagate, Sun Microsystems and Digital Equipment. In addition, this trend is even apparent in several cases where companies that had pre-announced disappointing results - only to come in with better sales than expected, such as Intel and Compaq. Finally, with a few notable exceptions, such as Compaq, these results came in with gross margins above expectations, owing to favorable mix shifts and component cost trends.

What does this mean? First, it may imply that underlying demand remains healthy, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. Second, it appears that corporate users are more focused on productivity than merely low price and are shifting towards more fully configured systems. Third, and most importantly, it may mean that expectations are low enough to enable the results to lead to upside surprises and multiple expansion from current levels.


Have a good Sunday - I am going home.
td