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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Jung who wrote (11730)	4/15/1998 1:54:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Respond to of 12298

Jon can you tap into the perverse logic of this market? Greg, im sure my guesses aren't any better then the next guys. But I see it like this. As you know, all eyes are looking for the bottom. There are hair triggers waiting on the "turnaround quarter" for every company in this sector. Nobody can know for sure, but if you are willing to guess then it makes sense that the "safest" time to buy is right after earnings. Not only is all the news out, but you also have 3 more months to watch and hope for improving conditions. Besides, SEG results came in in-line with First Call expectations. That hasn't happened for anyone in this sector for a while now. Things that are predictable seem very safe. Next Qtrs estimates are higher you know. This may in fact be as bad as it ever gets. But just keep in mind that just because it wont get worse doesn't mean its going to get better right away. And when it does get better, that doesn't mean it will ever return to how it once was. I firmly believe that the economics of the magnetic storage sector have changed. I'm wondering how these guys are gonna scrape by and still grow in the sub-1000 era. After the worst is over I expect these stocks to go for a good ride up. And then reality will set in when people realize that earnings aren't keeping up with the stock rise as they expected, and the sector will drop again and stabilize. I'm going to look for opportunities in these moves, but i can no longer get excited about the long term prospects. Jon Bird