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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (4610)	4/15/1998 1:44:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Peter, GZTC is currently valued at about $180m. They are IMO the industry leader in trangenic production and are likely to establish proof of principal this year. To date, GZTC has produced more than 27 trangenic such proteins. Its lead compound, Antithrombin III is in Phase III and it is likely that GZTC will file its NDA before the end of 1998. In addition the company is a leading Contract Research Organization specializing in preclinical efficacy and safety testing. Fairly valued the CRO alone is worth in excess of $100m. With the completed financing the company has in excess of $20m in cash resulting in the transgenic business being value at around $60m. A huge bargain given the fact that trangenic production is far more robust than current production techniques. This is especially true for blood protiens where the current source has disease risk. Although the purification of the expressed human protiens from the animal protiens remains a scaleup issue the potential is huge. I have taken a look at the financing and frankly its not as bad as people have made out. First it must be converted within 3 years. Second, until December 20 of this year the conversion price is not less than $14.55 a share. GZTC is obviouly betting on a sucessfull phase III before the end of the year which will drive the stock price in excess of $14. The risk is disappointing phase III results which would destroy the stock price with or without the financing. All in all its an excellent risk reward. I would trim the position if we hit 14+ in the next 90 days. V1

To: Biomaven who wrote (4610)	4/15/1998 1:55:00 AM
From: Vector1	Respond to of 9719

LGND. LGND is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Yes it is a complicated story, but that is why IMO it is undervalued. The company has first class science (Ron Evans will prob win a Nobel prize for his retiniod work within the next 5 years) and is well recognized as the leader in signal transduction. Its lead compounds are non toxic which makes them virtually unique in oncology. LGNDs strategy is clearly to get Targretin and Panretin approved (which approval is highly likely)for narrow indications and then expand the label with followup clinicals. As the clinicals are published, and in advance of approval, off label use will drive sales growth. this is a classic big pharma strategy in oncology. LGND has experienced management and I like the business plan. I agree that MLNM is cheap. the value of technology without current earning potential is being hugely discounted by the street. the result is low stock prices for GLFD, MLNM and RGEN to name a few. Patient capital will be rewarded. I am learning about PCYC and like what I see so far. I am not a fan of ARQL V1