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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: margie who wrote (4046)4/15/1998 1:30:00 AM
From: Peter Singleton  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6136
 
Just a couple of points to add to Margie's post of Larry Moss's conference call summary.

As Larry says, Kent Snyder said they expect Viracept sales to grow in the US Q4 FY 1998, and throughout FY 99. He gave guidance that they expect $350-360M in US sales for FY 98. Since they have $257M sold through Q3 ($79.5M Q1, $84.5M Q2, $93M Q3), that's not a great leap of faith, of course, since that would put their public forecast at $93-103M for Q4.

Given their stated desire to under-promise and under-deliver, and the quarter to quarter increases in sales so for (Q1 to Q2 +$5M, 6% increase, and Q2 to Q3, +$8.5, 10% increase), $100-105M (+$7-12M, 8%-13% increase) in Q4 US sales seems aggressive, but achievable. Maybe a responsible analyst would peg a number of about $100M as a starting estimate, pending more data.

Also, fyi, Snyder or Steve Cowell commented they are adding to the sales force in the US to get more market coverage. Snyder had given some compelling market analysis in their analyst day in San Francisco in January, where he discussed their market research which showed that Viracept's market share varied significantly by physician type (higher prescribing HIV specialists prescribed with a higher degree of frequency), and by geography ... giving them clear targets for increasing market penetration.

Peter



To: margie who wrote (4046)4/15/1998 3:40:00 AM
From: sam  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6136
 
Thanks for the highlights. The call actually sounds like it went very well.



To: margie who wrote (4046)4/15/1998 6:36:00 AM
From: Henry Niman  Respond to of 6136
 
Here's what WSJ had to say today:
Biotech Firms
Are Expected
To Post Gains

---
Newer Concerns' Earnings
Were Strong in Quarter
On Drug Introductions
----

By Jennifer Fron Mauer
Dow Jones Newswires

New products drove up-and-coming biotechnology companies to strong gains
in first-quarter earnings, while more-established biotech concerns are
expected to report relatively modest profit increases for the quarter.

Interneuron Pharmaceuticals Inc., which continues to struggle after its diet
drug Redux was recalled by the Food and Drug Administration, still stands
out with its increasing losses.

The Lexington, Mass., company, which just completed its fiscal second
quarter, is expected to post a loss of 58 cents a share, compared with a loss
of 19 cents a year earlier.

Of particular interest in the first quarter were the companies that launched
products in the past few months, analysts said. Some already are showing
strong performances.

Pathogenesis Corp., Seattle, which in January launched Tobi, its inhalable
cystic fibrosis treatment, is expected to report a loss of 10 cents a share for
the quarter, compared with a loss of 43 cents a year earlier, according to
estimates compiled by First Call Corp. Jay Silverman, an analyst with
BancAmerica Robertson Stephens & Co., estimates sales of Tobi were
about $11 million in the first quarter, but he said he wouldn't be surprised if
sales came in at around $13 million.

Idec Pharmaceuticals Corp.'s expected first-quarter profit of five cents a
share, compared with a loss of 12 cents a year earlier, was propelled by sales
of its cancer drug, Rituxin, which received FDA approval late last year. Eric
Hecht, an analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co., said the San Diego company
probably saw Rituxin achieve sales of $35 million in the first quarter.

Several biotechnology companies, whose newest products have been on the
market for some time, also are expected to turn in strong first quarters.

For example, Sequus Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Doxil was approved by the
FDA in 1995 for use in treating Kaposi's sarcoma, a common form of cancer
among AIDS patients, but off-label uses have boosted the drug's sales in the
past 12 months. That increase in off-label use has been driven by recently
published medical-journal articles that extolled Doxil's effectiveness in
treating breast cancer and ovarian cancer, analysts said.

BancAmerica Robertson's Mr. Silverman estimates Doxil's sales climbed to
$11 million to $12 million for the first quarter. That would be the drug's fourth
consecutive increase in quarterly sales. As a result, the Menlo Park, Calif.,
company is expected to report a loss of 12 cents a share for the first quarter,
according to First Call. That compares with a loss of 25 cents a year earlier.

Agouron Pharmaceuticals Inc. continues to benefit from the stellar
performance of its protease inhibitor, Viracept, which was launched last
year. Viracept's fiscal third-quarter sales are estimated at $94 million,
according to Mr. Silverman, propelling Agouron, of La Jolla, Calif., to a profit
of 39 cents a share, compared with a loss of 19 cents a year earlier, adjusted
for a 2-for-1 stock split in August.

Profit increases at Medimmune Inc. continue to be propelled by sales of
RespiGam, which was approved in 1996 and is used in treating respiratory
syncytial virus, a sometimes-fatal respiratory illness. The Gathersburg, Md.,
company is expected to post a profit of 22 cents a share, compared with a
loss of 65 cents a year earlier.

More-established biotech companies are expected to turn in less exciting
quarters, analysts said.

Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks, Calif., should register a modest profit
improvement. Analysts estimate the company earned 67 cents a share, up
from 65 cents a year earlier, according to First Call.

Chiron Corp., Emeryville, Calif., is expected to have earned 10 cents a share
in the first quarter, compared with nine cents a year earlier.

Genzyme Corp., of Cambridge, Mass., is seen having earned 30 cents a
share, compared with 27 cents a year earlier.