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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (16510)	4/15/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Barry, My favorite was and is #2. It concurs with the revised Elliott count (I saw a lot of EW count lately on SI bear threads, is it like turning to spiritualism when faced with unbearable reality?) It's the same count that led me to believe that Aug 6th was THE top, remember all those "Why the bull is a swan" posts? Revising that count : Here's the chart- the-privateer.com Wave 1 begins immediately after the '87 mini crash 2 is 1990 bear. 3 carries the Dow from 2500 in 1990 to almost 4000 early '94 4 is the consolidation through all of 1994 5 is the three years bull run since Dec 1994 No change in this count. In wave 5 I counted 1 from Dec '94 till mid '96 2 is summer '96 sharp correction 3 I counted before until March '97 correction and was wrong. Wave 1 lasted a year and a half, and carried the Dow for a 50% rise. Wave 3 cannot be only half that duration and advance. Therefore the spring correction of '97 I now proclaim to be the half way point and a split in wave 3. 4 is of course Aug to Oct '97, a perfect abc correction. 5 is again split to 5 1 from Oct low to early Dec 2 from there to Jan 3 is a bit puzzling cause it's until NOW. A bit too long. 4 should be a correction to around 8700 5 should take us to a top very close to 10000 but not over that ominous hurdle. Anyway, the EW count has failed me before (not by predicting the top, which I did quite accurately, but by wrong assessment of the top's importance and magnitude), and It looks like many are already bored by this 1-2-3-4-5 a-b-c count. Pure pattern recognition also suggests another correction before the final spike. Look again at the chart and see that the Aug '97 to Jan '98 period is the longest and most thorough consolidation period since '94. Two failed attempts at new highs in Oct and Dec, and then the successful one in Feb, yet without any significant pullback. My interpretation is: Either we go straight to the top a few hundred Dow points and a few weeks away, or we get the pullback NOW, to around 8700 and then the final leg up, that would bring us again to a top in the summer and a crash in the FALL. It will end in tears ATG