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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (19102)	4/17/1998 7:38:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Bob, Maybe the market is just getting excited over LGND's new annual report. I still have to go through the details, but the table of products gives some indication on how close LGND is to new advances. Breast cancer advances seem to be shining through. The two phase I combination trials of Panretin with Tamoxifen have both advanced into Phase II. I really didn't expect the combo to create problems because they synergize in rats and target different receptors which seem to have some sort of biological relationship. Targretin oral is listed as Phase II/III for breast cancer which is quite a move. I still haven't seen any details, but Bernie had indicated that LGND would be aggressively targeting breast cancer and this appears to be another example. A third front on breast cancer appears to be on the anti-estrogen program with AHP. Although Droloxifene trials have switched from treatment to prevention (by PFE), the AHP program seems to be targeting treatment. The name of the compound is not given, but it does not appear to be TSE424 which is listed under osteoporosis. A fourth front on breast cancer is through progesterone agonists (LG2527 and LG2716 series) which appear to be just shy of IND filing. Although not in the table, combining a rexinoid (other than Targretin) with a SERM to treat cancer (presumably breast cancer) is also described in the CEO overview. The (other than Targretin) comment is of interest. One LLY SERM, Evista, has already received FDA approval (for te prevention of osteoporosis). LGND's lead rexinoid, Targretin, is on track to receive approval late this year or early next year (for CTCL). Thus, a combination treatment (Evista and Targretin) could be prescribed relatively soon. However, it appears that the LLY/LGND research program is really targeting second generation compounds.

To: Machaon who wrote (19102)	4/17/1998 7:50:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Another compound that appears to be ready for IND filing is the androgen antagonist, LGD1331. In the table it is shown to be as advanced as TSE424 and AHP recently entered it into the clinic. The anti-androgen targets very large markets including prostate cancer, BPH, and hursutism. Early reports by Bear Stearns' David Molowa had suggested that LGND would develop the prostate cancer indication and license out BPH and hursutism. The table suggests that the time line for some sort of announcement(s) is very short. The annual report also seems to be talking more about Men's Health in addition to Women's Health as niche areas for LGND.

To: Machaon who wrote (19102)	4/17/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

CNBC just indicated that LLY was expect to open higher because of positive comments by Morgan Stanley on Evista's potential as breast cancer prevention. A strong report is expected next month at ASCO. Yesterday, Paine Weber was not as optimistic about Evista: EVISTA (osteoporosis)--LLY's new osteoporosis drug is off to a disappointing start with 53,000 total prescriptions in March. More importantly, the weekly trends are showing positive, but slow sequential growth (consistently less than 1,000 additional new prescriptions per week). While we do expect the trends to improve in the second half of the year (as additional breast cancer and fracture data become available), we did recently lower our 1998 U.S. revenue estimate is $125 million.