To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (4227 ) 4/15/1998 9:21:00 PM From: Mr. Miller Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7703
Byron. Running through some numbers: If we were to expect 30 million in revenues by year end 1998, with 14% margins, we could reasonably expect about $4.2 million in earnings. That is what the previous PR had projected. If we were to conservatively look at only that, it would represent about 25 cents eps. Place your own multiple, but using 100X P/E would be $25. I have seen the likes of ATHM, YHOO, XCIT, LCOS, MSPG, ELNK have enormous P/E and P/S. With the potential and backing of any company comes these high expectations. I suspect that IDTC's market cap has about 80% internet telephony potential factored into it. I can't say where we should be fairly valued until we get some direction from Jimmy on the future's quarterly growth projections. We are expecting $1 million or more from the Louis International deal by June 13th. Keep in mind this says we will do more than a million by then which indicates to me that we are already generating revenues as we speak, just not a million per month. I have no idea what the other deals can contribute right now. It would be nice to know pro forma rates on these issues, and add to that any subsequent deals. If we really have about 30 million expected right now FY 1998, which portion is from what, and then what growth rate can we project for those. From this we can start to formulate a ballpark on valuation. Their personal statement of 1-3 percent of the 600 billion dollar telecom industry by turn of century seems lofty, but if we could do just 10% of that, it would mean revs of over $600 million. Projecting out then to FY 2001 revs of over $600 million, with a conservative margin of 10% we'd do $60 million in earnings. Assuming dilution from whatever of 8 million shares from where we are now, that would provide eps of about $2.40. Conservative P/E in this growing company of 40 would put us at $96/share. It is this price that would be my target, and we'd see alot of ups and downs till we got there. These piddly moves are significant obviously now since we own alot and we moved from penny stock range and we are still listed in the pink sheets. Patience will allow the fruit to bear. Some of you may not need to wait that long. You'll be retired at $20 or $30 with your sizeable holdings. Hell if MSPG, XCIT, and ELNK can hit market caps of over $1 billion on their fundamentals, by golly we can hit it too!!! Miller