To: JP who wrote (6160 ) 4/16/1998 12:05:00 PM From: FuzzFace Respond to of 7685
JP, sorry to gang up on you like this, but your comments about SYQT technology reminded me of the wisdom in this TSC article. I got burned by IOM by believing just as you do now about SYQT. It took almost a year, but it happened when I least expected - when everyone "knew" IOM would have a blowout Q4. archive.thestreet.com Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: Cramer on the Trouble with Technology By James J. Cramer 3/30/98 11:07 AM ET Something bothered me about Friday's chat on ABCNews.com. It's part of a common problem that invades all chats. I call it the "techno-brilliant; stock market stupid" analysis and it causes people to lose millions of dollars a year in bad equity selection. OROM technology, DVD technology, Zip Drive technology; these are all part of the same affliction. It is a fundamental, misguided belief that if you discover some technology that you think is revolutionary, you can make money on it. I never, ever invest this way. I know that new technologies don't produce enough wins in the stock market to justify the dollars spent betting on them. Sure, somebody might make some money, particularly the earliest guys, but when we look back a year from now we won't find any winners worth investing in. If the technology is fabulous, then it will be copied by other, bigger companies. If the technology isn't fabulous, you will get blown up as surely as if you stepped on a live land mine. One of the reasons why I wanted Herb Greenberg to write for us so badly is that Herb was wise to this phenomenon earlier than anybody else. He may not agree with my typecasting of these kinds of investments, but over the years, Herb's Chron column has set me straight many, many times about the wonders of betting on new technology. ....