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Technology Stocks : BORL: Time to BUY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lewis Edinburg who wrote (9875)	4/16/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: Sam Scrutchins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10836

Interesting. So the basic assumption of the analysis is that (almost) everyone who buys and sells Borland stock knows what is happening inside the company and the market it competes in and you try to identify their buying habits. Lewis, I don't think your statement correctly represents the message I was trying to convey. My assumption is that the market is the sum total of the knowledge of every buyer and seller. Psychologically, it can become overbought or oversold as more investors on average trend toward bullish or bearish views. This is why stocks often move away from fair value and why general market moves accentuate these trends. If a pickup in activity either up or down suddenly occurs, then my assumption is that the market (not the individuals within the market) is providing some sort of signal which I must correctly observe, comprehend, and act upon. The signal may be that of a small group of individuals either with inside knowledge or what they think is inside knowledge. That's in part why some technical breakouts fail--the knowledge turns out to be wrong. But in the long run, these ups and downs often provide and indication of a stocks future direction. Borland's most recent symmetrical triangle is an example of a formation depicting some amount of uncertainty that is moving towards a resolution of that uncertainty. This week, that uncertainty has taken on a bullish undertone. Technical analysts have learned that charts showing various patterns have a certain amount of predictabiliy, Charts showing Borland's present pattern are less predictable in direction, but fairly predictable about the timing of the end to a consolidation or reversal period. This week's up trend holds promise for the longs. The following link goes to a Borland daily chart of 1-year showing Bollinger Bands and volume. chart1.bigcharts.com As one can see, Borland decisively broke through the Bollinger band. However, the breakout of the upper symmetrical triangle is less certain, depending on what stock high point is used to define the boundary line. The mid-March high point as the first boundary line coordinate and the first of April high point as the second boundary line suggests a strong breakout. But the mid February high point as the first boundary line coordinate and the mid-March high point as the second coordinate provides a more symmetrical pattern (symmetrical triangles are usually, in fact, very symmetrical). If the latter is correct, then Wed's move carried Borland to the boundary line for a third time but not through it. A continued move up on Thursday, especially one through 10, would clarify and definitely be a breakout. Sam