To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1481 ) 4/16/1998 1:59:00 AM From: uu Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2616
Bill, You state: > As far as CYBG is concerned - you just saw the pump, now welcome to the dump. Let us examine the above statement, shall we? We all are in the stock market to make some money. Some of us do it by being long and some others do it by going short on a set of particular stocks. There are two reasons a stock goes up: 1. Anticipation of an impressive earnings report and/or future earnings growth. 2. Momentum generated by either those who are short being squeezed and/or the company being associated in a hot sector of the economy that is believed to have an impressive growth (eventhough that company has not yet shown any growth of its own). I am long on CYBG and in my humble opinion both above reasons apply to CYBG very strongly. Why? Well here are my reasons: Because of Sun Microsystems new computing model (namely thin client/server centric architecture) the need for software security is rising at an astornomical rate. Despite the fact that there are already quite a few companies that provide such products, the demand at this time exceeds the supply. Furthermore because of the number of small players in this particular sector, the consolidation will definitely be in order. CYBG is an established company (in a sense that it has been around since the introduction of Sun's server centric computing model via Java) with award winning and known products. Therefore logic (at least my logic) dictates that CYBG is on its path to an impressive growth rate. Additionally if you compare CYBG with its rivals (with less of an established market) such as ISSX, you notice that its (i.e. CYBG's) multiples are very much lower than theirs. This means CYBG still has a lot further to go to be valued at the same level as its rivals (my estimation is to at least $25/shr). Second of all, because this sector of technology is still new and the mass majority of investors do not quite undestand it, a lot of people naively will soon start to think of overvaluation. The source of this wrong perception is their lack of understanding of this sector and the new computing model (as defined and adopted by the industry via Java). This will result in an increase in the number of shares shorted. However, what ends up happening (IMHO of course) is that because these sectors are growing at an astonomical rates (again due to Sun's new computing model as adopted by the industry) companies such as CYBG will be showing impressive earnings and revenue growth rates. This will only attract more investors to the stock resulting in a harsh short squeeze and adding to fuel resulting in higher stock prices for companies such as CYBG. Therefore because of the above reasons I have a very long position in this stock with an average share price of around $13.30/shr. We are all here to make money and over the years one thing I have learned is that in order to make money one has to have an absolute open mind about his/her investment decisions. Therefore I would appreciate it if you can please explain to us (or to me anyway) your reasons in a logical order for going short on this particular stock. Regards, Addi Jamshidi