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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HAMMER who wrote (5812)	4/16/1998 2:25:00 AM
From: HAMMER	Respond to of 74651

Looks like the calendar was changed to 4/22 for earnings!!

To: HAMMER who wrote (5812)	4/16/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: Exacctnt	Respond to of 74651

Hammer, Where are you getting earnings estimates at $.52 a share. According to the Microsoft conference call a few weeks back, they upped their earnings estimates by 4 cents to $.48 per share. Zacks has them at $.47 and First Call at $.48 per share. Both of these have been already raised by 4 cents. If there is any surprise left, I would think it would be no more than a penny. You seem to have doubled their revised forecast and setting yourself up for disappointment. Regards, Bob

To: HAMMER who wrote (5812)	4/16/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Estimates for this quarter and the stock price. Microsoft said on March 27th or so that the analysts mean estimates of 43c was 4c lower than what is expects to report. That would make it 47c. Unless Micrsoft's own estimates is totally wrong or the last 3 days did increadible business, why would anyone expect much higher EPS than 47c?. Secondly, currently MSFT has 1.58 of trailing 12 month of real reported EPS (exluding the one time Web TV writeoff). I wouldn't give this stock more than a 50PE or 79 based on trailing 12 month EPS. Considering they have preannounced March Q to be 47c or so, and taking a trialing EPS of 1.65, it deserves to be at 87.5 Investors can pay any price that they feel like. But the potential gain and margin of safety for downside risk reduces day by day as the stock goes out of line with the 50 PE range. Didn't Greg Moeffi say, MSFT didn't buy their own stock last Q becasue the PE was attrocious? johnd