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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgen who wrote (5277)	4/16/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: rupert1	Respond to of 6980

Jurgen: Thanks for the Street.com article. It certainly lays the issues on the line for this evening. According to the article the rumours that have knocked the stock are that House will have to back off his optimistic outlook for the June quarter. If he does, the share price could go lower. If he does not, there should be a relief rally. This is tied in with general concern about the growth rate of the networking sub-industry. If he claims less than 20% (as against CISCO's claim of 30-50%) then this will perpetuate uncertainty. I notice that the major bear quoted (a MM ex-shareholder) sold all his BAY holding for the strange reason that he heard a rumour that BAY was stuffing sales into the final weeks of this quarter. This sounds like a corrupted version of what BAY said relative to seasonal factors and slow take-up of Accelar evaluation units and slippage of two or three weeks sales into the June quarter. In any case, I would be happy if they stuffed sales into the final three weeks of this quarter. I notice that the same bear is poised to buy back in if House is positive in the CC. You wonder how they have the nerve to charge administrative fees! The other factor - which has also appeared on this thread a few times - is the adage that problems are never solved in a single quarter ("there is never a single cockroach"). My reply to that it depends on the nature of the problem. BAY's problems of product transition and general market slowdown might stretch beyond the June quarter but this does not necessarily mean that BAY will not see adequate growth in its revenues and profits. The news that BAY will make a major annoucement of a new product on Monday for immediate shipping in the fax and voice area is very welcome. It can support a relief rally or slow down a bear reaction. Victor