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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rhet0ric who wrote (9538)	4/16/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Mike C	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

These are the numbers I've been waiting for as they are starting to show a trend in number of new members. Take the 2 hypothetical columns of members in millions. A B ___ ___ 6 - ----, 6 Million members 8 - ---- , 7 10 ----- , 8.5 12 ----- , 10 13 - ----, 13 14 ----, 15 14.5 ------ 18 Which column represents AOL's membership gain? My analysis tells me the rate of membership gain is starting to peak (column A),i.e., there is a finite limit approaching, the gain is not exponential nor showing a significant up trend. If next quarters gain is to 20 million then I'm all wet but if it is under 14 or 15 million then this is assumption is valid. Another fact that has become apparent to me is the make up of the membership increase - My 13 year old niece and her friend came over and asked to get on the net. After about a half an hour I discovered they were in the "chat rooms" "looking for boys". The ad for the Ford Explorer didn't do much good here. Mike C