To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (39950 ) 4/16/1998 12:07:00 PM From: Tom Trader Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
>>this is what is confusing me are we talking two systems??? Nope -- one system; the momentum factor is built into the system. >>because you get a sell signal generated by your system...but you don't take it because of the momentum..so that would not be taking every signal...UNLESS you got some other system in conjunction with that<< See above response; if the system does not reverse -- but goes flat, like it did last time when it went from long to flat, it constitutes a sell signal but one that did not get acted on--because the system, did not intend for one to be short. >>that is why I thought there was a subjective factor in there...<< Nothing subjective whatever about the signals--very mechanical and VERY boring. The fun--and frustrating part--is in developing the system--and in making money. >>because there have been two sell signals generated by your system that you didnt take<< See above responses >>and it is hard to make good money on the short side in the last couple of months...so it was probably a wise decision not to take them..(although i didnt look to see what happened after you got the sell signals)<< Actually -- if I had gone short, instead of flat, the last go around, it would have made a one point profit, I think. BTW, this thing about not taking certain signals applies, when there is strong momentum on the downside as well. Like in October, after going flat during the sharp sell off, the system could not go long without the momentum dissipating -- and on that occasion, it did not work out because the bounce from the lows was pretty significant. But can't win em all. >>do you follow me????? I always follow you--just takes some time:) >>btw, is this a stop and reverse kind of thing....and if we dont hit the reverse you take the 45 point profit...(sheesh that is alot of money!!!)<< That's the idea -- a few large wins make up for the smaller losses. Tough part as always, is to take EVERY signal--especially when one has a string of losers. I post only the S&P trades but I also use the same system --with minor variation--to trade the bonds, currencies and at one time the metals--will shortly start trading silver again. Will also start trading the beans and one of the meats -- trying to figure out the parameters that need to be changed to trade those. I have the beans figured out and am paper trading it for now. >>so in essense you change your numbers every day... Yes -- each day's price action influences the next day's signal