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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hal jordan who wrote (7125)	4/16/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I would pick AMZN. It reminds me of Snapple Ice Tea running up from $ 20 to $ 120 in a year. They were the only ice tea on the market but once Lipton & Nestea entered the market they were history.

To: hal jordan who wrote (7125)	4/16/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

>>>Question: What is the best short/put out there. Lets identify the the stock with the weakest position. Here's my picks to go thru: AMZN LCOS XCIT SEEK KTEL YHOO<<< My choice is none of the above. Why not pick on a one product company in an overlooked out of favor sector, with no earnings, massive competition from well funded, diversified multinational corporations and massive insider selling, rather than a stock in the hottest sector around? BTW, a stock that fills the above bill is ENML, which I've been short since 19 5/8, and pyramided my position at 9 11/16 when it fell through support at 9 3/4 the other day. Barb

To: hal jordan who wrote (7125)	4/16/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 18691

We all know the internets are way overvalued, but I like the following comparison, it puts them in perspective: <<''The valuations are rising on pure momentum. They're not taking into account any of the risks, and they have become completely ludicrous,'' said Bleier. ''Yahoo now has a $6.5 billion market cap and is trading at 60 times sales. Lycos, Excite and Infoseek are worth more than a billion each and trading at over 30 times sales. Is one of those companies really worth more than Westinghouse paid for CBS?'' he said.>> biz.yahoo.com

To: hal jordan who wrote (7125)	4/16/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

First, I'd say the third and fourth string players, which means LCOS and SEEK. YHOO and XCIT will probably survive, though not at these levels. Lots of the little guys will not. Second, I'd have to point to companies in a non-differentiated business with looming competition from companies much bigger than them, and much more able to sustain losses. That would be AMZN. Barnes and Nobles are running ads on Stern in the morning, which is VERY expensive stuff, but they can afford it indefinitely if that's what it takes to build themselves up. AMZN can't. Third, I'd go after YHOO and XCIT, purely on a valuation basis. Of course, in this market, having earnings may actually be a negative. Earnings can come in below expectations, while "development stage" companies with no earnings don't generally get a chance to disappoint. mg