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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (509)	4/16/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Jon Nunley	Respond to of 927

Wayne, Thanks for your work. I look forward to reading your analysis every evening.

To: Wayners who wrote (509)	4/17/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 927

Stock Update 4/17/98 close. Updated ADPT thru XCIT. This thread analyzes and discusses forecasts for the following stocks (NASDAQ index too) using a trading system based on a variation of stochastics, trading with the trend and trading against the trend on volatility spikes. Bollinger bands and volatility are key elements of the method. Also use some regular support and resistance level work: NASDAQ..ADPT..AMAT..AMD..AMGN..AMZN..AOL..ARX..ASA..ASND.. AVM..AVNT..BBIOY..BMY..BNYN..CADE..CBIZ..CDRD..CEXP..CFON.. CIEN..CKFR..CLST..COMS..CORR..CORX..CPQ..CTXS..CYBR..CYCH.. CYMI..CYPB..DELL..DIMD..DSYS..DWRX..EFII..FONR..GDT..GERN.. GTW..HD..HRSH..IDTC..IHS..IIT..INTC..IOM..IRIDF..JLG..KLIC.. LCCI..LSI..LTBG..LTXX..MAIN..MEDA..MIND..MPDI..MSFT..MUEI.. NORT..NSCP..NTBK..ORCL..OXHP..PNDA..PRMS..PSIX..QCOM..QWST.. REMC..RIG..RMBS..RMDY..SEEK..SFY..SHVA..SMOD..SOCR..SUNW.. SYNT..TDFX..TMAR..TMX..TRBO..TSSW..TTRR..UEIC..UTX.. VECO..VLSI..WCII..WTT..XCIT.. All commentary is at the time of the last signal received except for some of the notes I've inserted. Signals are based on 12 day bollinger bands on %K=5 and %D=3 stochastics. Signals are generated as the stochastic line crosses one of five bollinger band lines (See Post 500 for an Index of this Thread). I manually edit the signals based on the trend mostly. A "buy" means go long only. A "buy to cover" means cover any open short positions, but does not mean go long. A "sell" means sell any open long positions but does not mean sell short. A "sell short" means go short only. Many times the signals are too late because the price move on the day of the signal was very large. Look for signals where the stock has not already moved very much. This advice will keep you out of trouble. Also, always use stops. Happy trading. With tight/narrow bollinger bands, the signal generated with stochastics are often 180 degrees out of phase because of the delay involved in getting the signal on past data. On tight bands, it can be profitable to consider selling on buy signals and buying on sell signals until the actual breakout occurs. NASDAQ Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Uptrend is now neutral. I'd expect resistance at the upper band at 1860. (15 Apr note--upper bollinger band is widening upwards indicating a break past 1860 now too. Big tech rally. I've got calls on PSFT and ASND and will have more cash available on Monday--wrote covered puts that I'm going to get called out on.) ADPT Last signal buy on 15 Apr. There's the breakout upward. Resistance on the upside is at $22.50 to $25. (17 Apr note--it still looks okay on my chart even with the down day.) AMAT Last signal buy on 14 Apr. The trend is absolutely flat. Expect strong resistance at the upper bollinger band at $38.75. (17 Apr note this is about to give a sell signal.) AMD Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Still on an uptrend. AMGN Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Its on a good downtrend. (17 Apr note. Weird move today. Must have been news related. Still not covering.) AMZN Last signal sell on 17 Apr. Try to buy back in at support level of $87. AOL Last signal sell on 17 Apr. Try to buy at support level of $70. ARX Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. Still in a downtrend. (17 Apr note--about to give a sell or sell short signal.) ASA Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Its showing break upwards. A break upwards goes to resistance just under $27.50. ASND Last signal buy on 8 Apr. Trend is up slightly. Today was a breakout. Volatility is increasing to the upside. I'd expect resistance at $45. Buy in the money calls to keep delta low and decrease amount spent for time value. (17 Apr note--its done the breakout in my opinion. Volatility is increasing to the upside. Buy in the money calls for May.) AVM Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Trend is down slightly. Support at $12 even. AVNT Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Trend is looking sick now. A good short. Made it up to $21.125 and not quite to our target of $21 7/8. BBIOY Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Still in a downtrend. BMY Last signal buy or buy to cover on 17 Apr. Its a bollinger band play, lower band to the upper band. BNYN Last signal buy on 6 Apr. Still in an uptrend. Volatility is dropping off dramatically. Looks like a major decision point. Uptrend gives it an upward bias for a break. Resistance is a $6.50. Stochastics still a buy supporting the upward break scenario for now.(16 Apr note $9.00????Tighten the stop a notch. Put it at $9 even.) CADE Last signal sell on 17 Apr. Another bollinger band play. Play between the upper and lower bands because of the flat/neutral trend. CBIZ Last signal sell or sell short on 6 Apr. neutral to slightly down trend. Volatility is at a minimum. (9 Apr. note--Looks like a stop out on short. Breaking out to the upside.) CDRD Last signal sell on 7 Apr. The volatility is probably high enough to short against the uptrend. Higher risk play. CEXP Last signal sell on 16 Apr. Look for reentry below $10.50. CFON Last signal sell short on 8 Apr. (Can't short under $5). CIEN Last signal sell on 17 Apr. I hope this signal is right. I am looking at it and I'm not so sure its going to drop. Trend is neutral so its a bollinger band play upper to lower band. CKFR Last signal buy on 26 Mar. There was that long awaited signal. The uptrend is still intact. Remember there is still resistance at $24 to $25. (15 Apr note--about to cross the middle band and no price drop. Really strong support on this one.) CLST Last signal buy or buy to cover on 13 Apr. Neutral trend so buy it and sell at the top band at $35.50 or just beyond it. COMS Last signal buy to cover on 7 Apr. Its on a neutral trend so pay attention to your bollinger bands. Its sitting on the lower band and its sitting on a support level and stochastics are about to give a buy signal. Time to cover all shorts.) CORR Last signal sell on 7 Apr. Same analysis as CKFR. High volatility, price stalled at a resistance level and stochastics are about to give a sell signal. Time to take profits on long positions. (14 Apr note--I think its going to go slightly higher. Looking for greater breakdown in stochastics.) CORX Last signal buy on 17 Apr. Still a good uptrend. CPQ Last signal buy on 9 Apr. The trend is fairly neutral. (17 Apr, note about to give a sell signal. Play down to the lower bollinger band.) CTXS Last signal sell on 16 Apr. CYBR Last signal sell short on 17 Apr. The trend is down. CYCH Last signal sell on 17 Apr. Still a good uptrend. May want to write covered calls on peaked volatility. CYMI Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Trend is still up and its going much higher. CYPB Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Good uptrend and high volatility. DBCC Last signal buy on 17 Apr. Didn't quite challenge $5.25. Went as low as $5.75. Its going to move another step higher--higher high. Stochastics are reversing to upside. DELL Last signal sell on 15 Apr. Risky play (the sell signal that is) becuase of the narrow bands/low volatility. Still in an uptrend too. DIMD Last signal sell short on 17 Apr. DSYS Last signal sell or sell short on 14 Apr. Trend is neutral. Seeya at $6.00. DWRX Last signal buy to cover on 9 Apr. EFII Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. I think its a sucker rally that will be shortable again. The trend is down. v(15 Apr note--dropping to support at just above $20.) FONR Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. Don't cover long term shorts since its under $5.00. GDT Last signal sell short on 27 Mar. The trend is down. (15 Apr. note--dropping to $70) GERN Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. Cover at the lower bollinger band. (15 Apr note--its right at a good support level. A countertrend rally goes to $12.50) GTW Last signal sell on 17 Apr. I'm skeptical of the signal because of the narrow bollinger bands and possibility of a break upwards. HD Last signal sell on 16 Apr. HRSH Last signal sell short on 14 Apr. Good downtrend. IDTC Last signal sell short on 14 Apr. Yes it dropped a lot but its going to go much lower. IHS Last signal sell on 3 Apr. Very narrow and pinched bollinger bands. Bias for a downside break. (15 Apr. note--this is a short sell at this point. Going into a downtrend. Support at $35.00 from current $37.50.) IIT Last signal sell on 16 Apr. INTC Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. The trend is slightly down, so for now I'm looking for another short opportunity if any. (15 Apr. note--it bounced right off of the upper band today because its on a slightly downtrend. Look for support at $71) IOM Last signal sell or sell short on 16 Apr. IRIDF Last signal sell or sell short on 17 Apr. JLG Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Decent uptrend still. (15 Apr note--very close to a breakout upwards.) KLIC Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. Its been on a downtrend. (17 Apr note about to give a sell short signal.) LCCI Last signal buy to cover on 13 Apr. LSI Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Trends is still up. LTBG Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Still in an uptrend. LTXX Last signal buy to cover on 15 Apr. Was at a support level as well. Sometimes it pays to anticipate signals. MAIN Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. MEDA Last signal buy to cover on 17 Apr. It found a way to bounce off of $10 to the upside after all. MIND Last signal sell short on 13 Apr. MPDI Last signal sell short on 17 Apr. MSFT Last signal buy on 9 Apr. Its breaking higher also. Buy in the money calls. MU Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. I did this morning (sold puts for a profit when MU was at $28 1/8.) MUEI Last signal buy on 16 Apr. NORT Last signal sell short (can't) on 16 Apr. NSCP Last signal sell or sell short on 17 Apr. Very high volatility. Can play the countertrend drop. NTBK Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Still in an uptrend. ORCL Last signal sell short on 16 Apr. A good short because there has not already been a large price move. I'd expect a drop to $25. OXHP Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Slight uptrend. I'd expect a run to resitance at $20 which is half past resistance at $17.50.) PNDA Last signal buy or buy to cover on 8 Apr. (15 Apr note--another buy signal today. Sell at $6.00 even.) PRMS Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. PSIX Last signal buy on 17 Apr. QCOM Last signal buy on 14 Apr. (15 Apr note--still looking for that upward break. They announce earnings next Tuesday.) QWST Last signal buy to cover on 13 Apr. Volatility is high enough for a countertrend rally (in other words a buy signal). REMC Last signal sell or sell short on 16 Apr. Turning into a downtrend. RIG Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Breaking out to the upside at low volatility point. I'd expect it go from current $55 to resistance at $60 in fairly short order.) Buy in the money calls for May, like the May $50s. Don't pay a lot for time value. RMBS Last signal sell on 6 Apr. RMDY Last signal was a buy on 15 Apr. Good solid uptrend. SEEK Last signal sell or sell short on 17 apr. Very high volatility makes it a good play for a countertrend drop. SFY Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Breaking out to upside. Expect resistance at $20.) SHVA Last signal sell or sell short on 14 Apr. SMOD Last signal buy on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--Its breaking out to the upside. Volatility is increasing and has a long way to go before peaking. I'd expect first run to go to resistance at $26 to $27.) SOCR Last signal sell short on 1 Apr. Still in a long term downtrend, (15 Apr note--Getting indications that long term shorts should be coverd next time its at the lower bollinger band.) SUNW Last signal sell short on 17 Apr. SYNT Last signal sell on 7 Apr. (16 Apr note-- I think this is close to a buy signal. These are really good buy signals because of the really strong uptrend.) TDFX Last signal buy or buy to cover on 13 Apr. Looks like I missed the signal somehow. I only made it down to MIND that day. That's how I missed it. TMAR Last signal buy or buy to cover on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--I'd expect it to hit strong resistance at $23 even. It will be a good short opportunity.) TMX Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. (15 Apr note--looking for that next short opportunity. Its probably 3 days away.) TRBO Last signal buy to cover on 16 Apr. TSSW Last signal buy or buy to cover on 27 Mar. Under $5 stock. Big move today. Watch for price reistance and price slowdown, price volume divergence etc. to pick out top. I'd pick a profit target of about $3.50. (16 Apr--another buy signal today.) TTRR Last signal buy to cover on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--sometimes buy to cover signals turn out to be flat out good buy signals, especially for stocks on only short term downtrends and long term uptrends where the price has dropped to a good support level provided by a price peak in the past.) UEIC last signal sell on 9 Apr. About to cross middle band. (15 Apr note--Consolidating as volatility decreases. Still a real good uptrend.) UTX Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Volatility is actually quite low on this one, so I don't expect any price drops on the next sell signal. VECO Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Good uptrend. Low volatility. Primed for a break upwards. Good one to buy May $35 calls in the money.) VLSI Last signal buy on 13 Apr. (15 Apr, note--buy signal really pays off. Hold it and watch for a peak in volatility and/or sell on stochastics.) WCII Last signal sell short on 13 Apr. (17 Apr note--I'd expect a bottom at $37.50 to start. The trend is moderately down. I'd expect a countertend rally. Its about to give a buy signal on stochastics as well.) WFC Last signal buy on 3 Apr. (15 Apr note-- Its about to give its first sell signal, but due to the strong trend we're going to ignore and wait for a greater breakdown in stochastics before selling. I'd expect it to go to $380 and drop back to $360 before then going higher again.) WTT Last signal sell on 17 Apr. (15 Apr note--Its right at the upper band now, and the trend is slightly down. Watch it closely because it likely to break downward from this resistance level. Put in a stop at about $7 5/16 for now.) XCIT Last signal sell or sell short on 17 Apr. Play the countertrend drop on the high volatility.