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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (7169)	4/16/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<<What do you think of Y2K in general?>> I've been concentrating on the Y2K effect in the retail sector, after learning one of my companies (AMES),(great long, by-the-way), was going to spend $2-3 million over the next 20 months. In Dayton Hudson's 1997 A.R. just released, they claim their costs will be, or exceed $40.0 million. I believe the SEC is, or will soon be requiring companies to publicly state their estimated Y2K costs in future 10-Q filings. I know very little about the technical aspects of correcting the problem, but from where I sit, the problem does appear to be real, or at least real expensive. Over the Easter holiday weekend I was told by a relative from Wash,DC, that it would be a very prudent idea to obtain a hard copy of my Lifetime Earnings and Benefits Statement from the Social Security Administration,-- just in case. They can be reached at: ssa.gov Look under - Online Direct Services.

To: Ploni who wrote (7169)	4/16/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Charles, the y2k problem is real, but very much overblown. And there are no magic bullets owned by small companies. My y2k long side investments in my long term accounts are KEA and IBM.

To: Ploni who wrote (7169)	4/17/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Bob Trocchi	Respond to of 18691

Charles... Re: Y2K stocks I believe KEA will continue to be a long term winner. They are not a pure Y2K company however, they are going great guns in Y2K and that is leading them to other long term contracts. I am long KEA. I also believe CA is a Y2K winner. They keep announcing contract wins. Again not a pure play and Y2K will not have a great impact on their stock price. However, IAIC, provides a significant amount of support to CA for their Y2K contracts and they are (I believe) a pure Y2K play. I am currently looking into IAIC as a possible trading long. I believe the Y2K problem is real but not as huge as is being made out. I suspect that all levels of Gov't. are the farthest behind. The companies that will be the winners are the ones that use Y2K to leverage other long term consulting business (CA, KEA, IBM) and those companies that can ride the coat tails of others (IAIC). IMO, Clear losers are ZITL (currently short), DDIM (recently covered a short position) and ALCY (currently short). BTW, I think ALCY is really a good company however they are simply too over priced for a market target that is going away shortly. I am again following VIAS (I have shorted them twice both for profits) as I believe they have real products and their stock price has been hammered lately. As such it could be in for a reasonable increase. Clearly, I am not an expert and do your own research. Good Luck Bob T.