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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Estephen who wrote (3832)	4/16/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: REH	Respond to of 93625

I'm referring to the total semiconductor market which includes more than just DRAM-manufacturers. Then I estimated a 10% marketshare in 1999 (8 billion) and 1.5% royalty. They just broke through $ 1 billion last month as far as rmbs licencees market-share. Nobody has started shipping RDRAM's within the PC market as far as I know. Sources in the Far East expect parts to start shipping this summer. I will revist my source on market-size to make sure I'm not way off base as far as the total size of the semiconductor market but as far as I can remember the DRAM part of the semi-market is about 25% I'll let you know what I find out and where I get the numbers from reh

To: Estephen who wrote (3832)	4/17/1998 9:54:00 AM
From: REH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

I'm not sure where Morgan Stanley get their figures but here's some of the recent reports on market-size which I down-sized in my earlier analysis: SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY UPDATE: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR SALES ROSE 4.5 % IN DECEMBER Wall Street Journal February 12, 1998 Worldwide semiconductor sales rose 4.5% in December to $11.48 billion, ringing up a total of $137.2 billion for 1997, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The 1997 total represents a 4% increase over the 1996 total of $131.97 billion and is slightly below an October forecast by the trade group of 5.5% growth for the year. Some of the disparity stems from depressed prices in DRAM memory chips and recent economic uncertainty in Asia, the group indicated in a press release. The 1997 sales total is the second highest on record, after 1995 peak sales of $144 billion, the SIA said. Dataquest, a market-research firm also based in San Jose, said that the Asian crisis would restrict growth in worldwide semiconductor sales to around 7% in 1998, down from a previously forecast 17%. Its new estimate of the 1998 global chip market was revised to $160 billion, down from $175 billion. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLOBAL CHIP SALES IN '97 UP 5.5% TO $150 BILLION Investor's Business Daily January 6, 1998 Researcher Dataquest says Intel remained the leader, with semiconductor sales up 19% to $21 billion. NEC held the No. 2 spot at $10.6 billion; followed by Motorola at $8 billion. The currency crisis in Asia exacerbated low memory-chip pricing. Sales at Hitachi, the No. 4 chip supplier in 1996 fell 20% as it dropped to No. 6. Toshiba held No. 5 though sales fell 7%. No. 7 Samsung's also fell 7%. [View Chart] eiaj.org reh