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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (19411)	4/16/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

ESV - Decreasing sequential earnings -- I called the damn company today. Was told that they are telling analysts to lower 1998 EPS projections (Zacks has $2.58 average by my checking) to 2.45-2.55 range. Said they like to be upfront with everyone. No surprises later. OK - sounds good to me. So we take the lowball 2.45 for the year, minus the .61 already finished, and it leaves $1.85 for the last 3 qtrs. Or around .61 or .62 per qtr. But if they see the next 2 qtrs a bit lower and the 4th qtr better they are probably looking at .58, .60, .67 for all I know. It sounds more ominous when numbers are not attached. I wish they would have given numbers out. I hope that what they gave me is reliable and officially what they are 'comfortable with'. It is what I was told.

To: marc chatman who wrote (19411)	4/16/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

PE of 30??? I think you're looking PY earnings ratios. I belive most here are speaking of forward (the only ones that really count) earnings ratios. For instance: DELL (which I am short) 37x '98 NKE (which I am short) and has HUGE problems... 28x '99 NE (which I am long) 15x '98 Many of the other drillers are discounted even farther. I think you can see, that there is plenty of protection form a blow-off in valuation terms as compared to the rest of the mkt. -Lucretius

To: marc chatman who wrote (19411)	4/16/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: Lost1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

"Decreasing sequential earnings" --I think this means Q3 lower than Q2 lower than Q1...Decreasing SEQUENTIAL<-----"Yes Alex, I'd like adjectives for $100 please.." Lost1 ps--L.T. has the gonads to short DELL? Is your real name Linda Tripp? ...Just kidding Luc...

To: marc chatman who wrote (19411)	4/16/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I agree with the cyclical comment. But the cycles are as long as 5 to 7 years. Why are we worrying about this on a day to day basis, hanging onto every press release, earnings estimate, and internet rumor. Let it ride 6 mo and see where we are. Fact is that compared to last October, ESV is down 40% or so. The market already factored in these types of reports. In another year we may well be talking about the amazing Asian recovery the same way we talk about the California recovery. This will have to be factored into the demand side of the equation. I don't believe that we can accurately predict these things further than 6 months out, which is still in the realm of a non capital taxing event. When you get out 18 months, no one can really know what the market may be doing then. But it is precisely at this point that you gain a nearly 50% advantage over shorter term investors. Because predictability is so poor at this length time period, all of us have a better chance against insiders and large players. If you think your system is good, you ought to see theirs. What are you flying these days. I do the P210.