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To: CLK who wrote (1823)	4/16/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Respond to of 3335

Off topic to CLK I thinking you are overestimating the gold backing of the Euro and the strength of the Euro itself. Also the dollar is intrinsically stronger than the Euro because the US economy is healthier than the European economy. Over the years I have noticed that most informed and economically literate people tend to be very bearish regarding their own currency, whatever that currency might be. I have puzzled over this phenomenom for some time. It has occurred to me that most sane observers when confronted with first hand daily evidence of how mediocre and venal their own politicians are and the short sightedness of many of their neighbors can only come to the conclusion that their economy and currency are going to hell in a hand basket. The trick to realize when analyzing relative values of currencies is that other countries have politicians who are just as pathetic and may in fact be worse. That the citizens of other countries may be short sighted and self interested as well. It is easy to look around and find reasons why one should believe the dollar is weak. However if you stack the dollar up against any of the European currencies the dollar starts looking pretty good. Much is made about the size of the US debt. But our debt to GNP ratio is below 60% and declining. Only one Euro country has a lower ratio, Luxembourg. Currently unemployment in many parts of Europe is at 10% or higher. There has been serious debate about attacking unemployment by mandating a maximum 32 hour work week. When compared to some of the lunacy in Europe the dollar starts looking a bit healthier. Henry

To: CLK who wrote (1823)	4/16/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 3335

Hello CLK -- Off Topic That was all there was on the Farber interview. And I do not watch CNBC....to much noise. My understanding from the short note....the Yen would rise against the dollar and other currencies. How would it do that..? Regain economic vitality, refloat its' financial centers and convince the world to buy the Yen. Otherwise, the dollar will need to be devalued substantially in the face of all currencies. What would do that..? Already there have been rumors of the Fed accomidating the Japanese government by an orderly selling of bonds to create liquidity and this I believe allowed the yen to rise....recently. My feelings....the Fed and other central banks can accomodate the Yen within current conditions.....and Japan can defend its' position. It would take a significant event to disrupt that equalibrium and cause currency traders to abandon the dollar. The Euro is not functioning yet and needs to be tested within todays "floated currency" markets. Again...something significant and unexpected will have to occur to radically destablize the dollar and send the worlds central banks to a gold standard. But Buffet owns silver and so does Sorros as well as oil wells....hmmmmmm. Wonder Why..? The Feb might welcome a 10-15% decline in the US Markets and Japan may very well carry the rest of Asia into a deeper recession and ours down 25% over the months ahead. But in my opinion that would just delay the bull market and not postpone the next 25 years of remarkable productivity and growth. Great New Book I have yet to read... "Prosperity: The Coming 20-Year Boom" by B Davis and D Wessel Conjecture -- that the computer is increasing productivity at a rate similar to the rate at which electricity changed the industrial age. Sounds Very Interesting Chip