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Biotech / Medical : Vivus: into single digits -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MIKE DUBIS who wrote (213)	4/17/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Colby	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1016

Mike, Dale, and BigKNY, I appreciate your responses to my posts. This was the kind of discussion I was looking for. <<Where do you think it will end up?>> Boy, I hope not in the direction it is going. It seems to me we are seeing more of a technical movement (not that I am at all well versed in the art of TA) than one based on fundementals. Honestly, I have no idea when VVUS will stop falling. At this point, I think the price has gotten to be absurd. There are too many positives (trying to be objective) for this company to get the beating it has. This is not to say I think it is deserving of a $20+ stock price, yet. Here are the things I like (I'll let you guys take care of the negatives) 1. FDA approval should be coming in the next month or so. (If that misses, which it shouldn't, I might cry.) That will help margins and any capacity constraints (I am sure most of you think capacity is not an issue). 2. New country approvals and the Milestone payments that go with it. I think if the FDA approves the facility, countries will be more apt to approve the drug. 3. I think the PFE effect has been exaggerated. I think that VVUS has a product that works, not that I have tried it. In a market that is so new, I can't imagine one product being the total cure. 4. Astra and Johanesen have thrown a lot of money at VVUS. I can't imagine they 1) haven't done their DD and 2) were unaware of PFE. 5. It won't take a huge market share to make VVUS a succesful product. The US market has between 20-30 Mil. people who suffer from ED. If we could just get 5% of the market at (what's a fair number?) 2 doses per day (God, I wish)... I mean month, that is a ton of Revenue. 1 Mil x 2 doses x 12 months x $16ish is over $380 MM in the US alone. I am not saying they will get these numbers, but you can see they don't need a huge chunk to fair well. I would think shorting at these levels would be overoptimistic. It seems to me the risk is greater than the reward. Also, getting to market first is a huge advantage. If VVUS had to compete w/ PFE from the get go, I don't know if they could have done it. In fact, I probably would never have been involved with this stock one way or the other, but that point is moot. They did get to market first and did $100 MM in Revs their first year. That is one of the draws of this company. To me, any company that can accomplish that feet is a going concern. That is all for now, I appreciate the sharing of opinions, Colby GO VVUS, YEAH!......Just kidding