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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (7186)	4/16/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

>>>Is there an answer? Maybe not, but with them spiking like this, turning over the float about every 1.5 days, and even most bulls acknowledging the ridiculousness of it all, it sure is tempting to top pick.<<< The answer is to leave it alone, IMO. I have found from hard cold experience that chasing a position is a losing game. I take the setup when it is served, and not before. If I wake up one morning and YHOO is down 40%, I'll not cry over missing it. If the news is bad enough, I'll jump on then. CLCX was a great short (which I missed), but the higher percentage trade was to short it after its bad news, not before. The folks who shorted it at 38-39 were lucky, not skillful traders IMO. PRST at 100 (200 presplit)? Didn't that fall a bunch in one day? Was that alousy short from 60? How about ZITL, 30 points in one day from 71 to 40 if I recall correctly? Lousy short after the downtrend was established? Iomega? 27 9/16 (55 1/8 presplit), but the downtrend wasn't really evident until 17 1/2? Closed at 7 1/8 today and will probably go lower tomorrow. That's also been a great short more than once, even after a 30% overnight haircut. I just find its much more profitable and less risky to bang out the singles than to go for the home run. When I covered my PNDA at 4 19/32 the other day folks said that I should hold out for 2. But I've used the money now in my short of FINE, and that's already up over 10%, while PNDA languishes just under 5. I find I make a lot more money when I'm less greedy, so in order to be truly greedy I give up the potential of huge scores, and bang out the smaller gains. It's kind of paradoxical. Everybody has to figure what style suits them. I'm only sharing my style with the board, and am not trying to say this is how everybody should trade, just that it's how I trade. Good luck topticking Yahoo!, I really am rooting for you to do it. But thank the trading gods at least a little if you do it. Barb

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (7186)	4/17/1998 9:38:00 AM
From: Bob Trocchi	Respond to of 18691

Bob... >>Bob, it may be safer not to try to pick the top of YHOO and the like, but do you and Barbara really think you can catch them on the way down<< I do not know about Barb (however I think she is much better than I) but I do now that I can't pick any top or bottom. My best and most consistent approach has been to look at valuation and if I feel it is really too high then I short and watch and wait. Often, short more if it goes up without significant news. I did just that with YHOO and lost over 20 points and covered at 70! Thank the good Lord. I have felt it has been over priced since thus I did not go long. Now if it and all the rest of the Internet stocks start the drop and lose significant % I think there will still be some room for a 10-15% gain for shorts. If it really tanks big time, I miss it and go look for something else. Appreciate your comments. bob T.