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To: Sonny Blue who wrote (10209)4/17/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond  Respond to of 27307
 
I am very uneasy, too. I'm seeing more "nonsense" declines. I took my margin debt down to zero today, but I think it's early to do any wholesale liquidating.

I think we may be entering the final stage of this move when the market reacts to the economy's strength (before a Fed snuggling) by bidding up cyclicals and technology stocks, while eschewing defensive and financial issues. The key indicator will likely be the Utility average.

In 1993, the Utilities peaked exactly six months before the Fed tightened on Feb 1, 1994, and the cyclicals took off in the interim. AOL was one of the last stocks to top then...six weeks after the Fed tightened!