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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18007)	4/17/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Thomas Winklhofer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Ike and everybody: Want to prepare my profitable (on paper) Index trading system (RUT and also SPX) for real life trading I'm still reading this interesting thread when I have time. Not so closely as I did at the beginning but still trying to 'keep the pace'. Congratulations to you Ike and all contributors! Today I have some questions to complete my paper trades for the new index trading system I have developed. The system looks very profitable on paper: Index: Russell2000 (RUT.X) Time frame: 4/1/93 - today No of trades: 301 Net profit: 709.61 (index points) Buy/hold: only 252.05 Without calculating commissions and so on Here are my questions 1. RUT.X has options. But there is almost no volume. Is it possible to buy and sell (more important) options when there is no volume? I saw somewhere that MMs have to take a certain amount of options even if there is no buyer. How much options do they have to take? I remember around 10. If there is too much risk I could trade SPX options on my RUT.X signals. But I wouldn't like to do that. 2. I would like to backtest my option trading on RUT or SPX. Does anybody now a good source for historical option prices? I would need bid/ask on closing base for all available strikes. Any reply is appreciated and thanks for reading. Thomas

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18007)	4/21/1998 3:55:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

SOX DDX NWX all moved very nicely. Nice to see SOX closing above 310 and also TXN taking out 60. I will think we see another close above 310 today and prepare for that move to 330. Nikkei has bounced off our support and NASDAQ took out the bias we were favouring and upward movement above 1866 closed solidly up 20 points. I go back to my posts and enjoy the drama unfolding very close to our script. On bonds I agree that the trade is on the short side as employment number will not be a weak number. I would assume March was an anomaly, the bond market will sell however watch out for employment cost index and also the export drop that may possibly shave a full percentage point from growth. I agree as far as demand does not slow down we will see a strong economy but I see the 'seasons of rumour and macro sensitive selling approaching. Too many contradictions will pull market between 1050 and 1160. A strong employment number will result in sell off of bonds and also the markets will sell but a weak export number will result in bond rallying and market weakening as people worry about dropping exports and its impact on corporate profits. One needs to pack trades and be sensitive to economic realeases. As far as SOX DDX NWX keep flying I am a happy man that what I am saying all aong and I would like the movement to continue. I like my indicators to move in the direction I predict and if they do I am very thankful to underlying analysis otherwise it is always a painful exercise to go back to drawing board and try to know where did I go wrong with a directional trade. Love from Kuwait to everyone.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18007)	4/21/1998 4:14:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

The thread: I'm posting excerpts from an article I read the day before yesterday: Dow index seen hitting 35,000 in 10 years: Expert The greatest stock market story has yet to be told. The Dow Jones Industrial average could zoom to 35,000 points in 10 years, says one expert. Sound far-fetched? Think again. Ten years ago, the world's most closely watched stock gauge stood at 2,000. This week, it closed above 9,100 for the first time. "A decade from now in 2008, the Dow's most likely target could be 35,000," said Harry Dent Jr., the San Francisco-based author of "The Roaring 2000s" and publisher of H.S. Dent Forecast, which tracks economic and demographic trends. Dent said the market will be driven by two predictable factors: spending by Baby Boomers, which fuels a big chunk of the economy, and the growing popularity of computers and the Internet. Stocks have climbed at least 20 per cent annually for three straight years, riding a wave of rising corporate earnings and the lowest inflation since the 1960s. Analysts said even if earnings growth slows to 7 per cent a year from the recent 15 per cent or so, the Dow could still reach 18,000 by 2008. Dent's minimum target is 21,500. But there will be some bad news between now and then. Dent expects the Dow to rise through 10,000 in the short run but drop a steep 20 per cent or more later this year. "Despite my bullishness, I expect a significant correction in the second half of this year, between late summer and fall," he said. "Our charts show that the market will get overvalued at 10,000 to 10,400, which we see as the limit in the short term, and it should warrant a healthy correction to recent lows of 7,000 or 7,600," Dent said. The correction has yet to materialize, with the Dow adding 172.64 points this week to 9,167.50, its third record of the week. But if it does, history has shown that the market has an incredible ability to recover. "It's too late to throw money into this bull market and most people should be waiting for better buying opportunities later this year," Dent said. "When the correction comes, they should not hesitate, even with the market down 2,000 to 3,000 points, they'll have the greatest buying opportunity. Dent said the 80 million Americans born after the Second World War until the early 1960s, the so-called Baby Boom generation, as well as the information revolution propelled by the growing use of computers and the Internet, will propel the market higher. "The Boomers' spending will drive predictable cycles that parallel the economy an stock market," Dent said. "In fact, the computer information revolution that's just beginning now will change our lives far more than the assembly-line revolution of the last century." Iqbal Latif Kuwait