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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ross who wrote (576)	4/17/1998 5:56:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3558

Actually, to be perfectly honest, I don't agree with Elliot Wave analysis on GOLD stocks. I visited your previous mentioned site, and enjoyed looking at the short & long term prediction for Barrick. And I found it rather interesting. First: The reason I don't belief in wave analysis, is that you could always use a larger wave to justify for inaccuracies. When I was at university we often fudged test data in engineering by applying erroneous formula to justify the results. The call it: "Better data, by statistic manipulation". But more importantly, for most of the time ABX trades within a definable range. What controls ABX is GOLD, US Dollar, and to a minor degree GOLDS future direction. With this in mind, and the precieved view that the EU was going to initiate a higher holding of Gold for the CB's; gold companies have lead GOLD up. Wether that was due to short covering, or real speculation is immaterial. Unless the EU announces the Gold reserve holding on April 23 {think that's the date} than Gold stocks & gold will decline. And we know what happens when they decide! As it stands, MY analysis of ABX put's it at a premium to gold. And further Gold is at a premium to the US dollar. My lowerest value for ABX is at $23.5 CDN {$16.40USD} for fundamentals. But as far a technicals go.... a short term retrace to $28cdn {$19.50 USD} But so much is hanging on the EU. The true speculator should be buying Aug/sep call/puts at todays price, and wait for the EU to announce. Personally, I believe that the EU will not require massive holdings of gold. But will actually own foreign bonds, and currencies like the rest of the world, Unless Asia has scared them. I still see gold going below $280 unless the markets crash in the USA... which I think should happen around June.... PS: I predicted the OCT correction last year, in June. My upper limit on the DOW is 9300 +-100, and than a decline. I use to say that there was no such thing as a bull/bear when it comes to investment, but not now! I'm a BEAR! And a big bear on Japan. VERY Big bear on the UK.