To: Roger Smith who wrote (10223 ) 4/17/1998 9:50:00 AM From: Candle stick Respond to of 27307
>Should You Take the Risk? >URL:zdnet.com >How-To >Larry Barrett<BR>ZD Inter@ctive Investor >Thursday, April 16, 1998 > >Everyone knows Internet stocks are growing at a fantastic >pace, but is it safe to buy into the madness today? > >There is no simple answer, but a quick glance at the recent >performance of one stock -- Yahoo! Inc. -- may help you >make up your mind. At the end of the day, it boils down >to faith. And whether or not you like living dangerously. > >Consider that Yahoo! is trading at $120 per share. Double >what it went for just three months ago. And six times >its $20 per share rate of a year ago. Heady stuff. And >the more you study the hard numbers, the less it seems >to make sense. > >Consider that Yahoo!'s market capitalization is more than >$5.1 billion. That is a staggering figure for a company >that made $4.2 million, or $0.08 per share, on total sales >of $30.2 million in its first quarter. > >For perspective, look at 3Com Corp. (COMS). The company's >market capitalization is $11 billion -- which is a relatively >modest figure considering the networking firm has earned >$540 million of net income on sales of more than $10.1 >billion in the past two years. > >In other words, according to Wall Street, Yahoo! is worth >about half of what 3Com is worth, even though 3Com's business >has greater scale and profit performance. Even the experts >are agog. > >"Yahoo's! stock price is trading like nothing I've ever >seen before," said Derek Brown, an analyst at Volpe Brown >Whelan & Co. "It's trading like a very mature company >that established its market dominance long ago. It really >is unbelievable." > >Ponder that: > >Analysts typically look for high-growth technology stocks >trading at about 25- to 30-times earnings in the past >year. When a stock gets to a P/E ratio of 40 or more, >they typically stop recommending the stock. > >But Yahoo! is currently trading at 40-times its total >sales for the past year. Which means that even if Yahoo! >were to double its earnings every year for the next 10 >years, it still would be trading at a price-to-earnings >ratio of 166. > >Wall Street is more than willing to follow this cash cow >around the block. At least as long as the company keeps >producing good quarters. But one major stumble -- even >temporary -- could land Yahoo! in the slaughterhouse. > >"People obviously believe in it , but there's >no track record to determine if it makes sense or not," >Brown said. "But if Yahoo! were to miss in its next quarter, >I wouldn't be surprised to see all these stocks lose 50 >percent or more of their value in a week." > >Internet stocks can be risky business. Even the experts >don't know how risky. Just make sure you can stand the >risk if you want to try to cash in.