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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (40186)	4/17/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Respond to of 58727

Lisa--re the ability of anyone to predict the direction of the market Just can't be done consistently; many have tried and continue to do so --but it is like black-jack, when one goes through winning and losing streaks. In the former case, one seems invincible and in the latter, one feels like---well, a "loser" Many try to predict direction-- some when they are right, herald it and are very quiet when they are wrong. Some obfuscate when they are wrong -- by introducing red herrings Other's, like Plonk, just acknowledge when they are wrong Trading with the trend helps put the odds in your favor--when the market is trending; when it is not trending, then it is almost a crap-shoot. Having a good system -- any good system -- does not ensure that one will be right. All it really does is to ensure that when wrong, it gets one out of the losing position without too much damage. BTW, none of the above is a reference to TraderX--who I don't know from Adam.

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (40186)	4/17/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Trader X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Actually, I work a day job, lisa. So there's a lot of times I can't come post. And when the market fools me, like it did thursday, I sit on the side until I can get a grasp on it again. I've found in my years of investing that taking a pause when you're wrong can give you a fresh perspective again. Trying to force the issue at the wrong time makes for a "losing streak". While I was wrong on the direction for thursday, I still believe my intermediate expectations are on target. But I reserve the right to change my forecast at any time. Markets change like the weather, on a dime. tx