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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hippieslayer who wrote (19158)	4/17/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

As I said earlier, I can't recall any comments on LGND's science, good or bad. The closest that I can recall is an attempt to draw some sort of inverse relationship between LGND's price and AMLN's price. I think that a bit of review is in order here. I'm sure that there are many new readers of this board and since our resident nay sayer is a rather frequent poster, it might be useful to review some fairly recent events, especially since these events are somewhat related to Biotechs in general, and LGND and AMLN in particular. As you know, I have been posting on LGND for some. Occasionally I comment on the sector in general, and sometimes I am asked for particulars on individual stocks. As I have posted many times, my background is in science (Ph.D. in Biochemistry and founder of Ligand's parent company, Progenx, in 1987) and I have no formal training in finance. Thus, I am more comfortable commenting on science than future stock prices. In the past I had been asked to name a few Biotechs with good potential, and in the past I have recommended AMLN. Last summer I had not been following them that closely, but our famous nay sayer had indicated that AMLN's Phase III data had just come out and I was invited to comment on the AMLN board (where our nay sayer used to post rather frequently). I took a look at the press release and saw some major problems. Unlike LGND, AMLN is largely a one drug (Pramlintide) company. They were targeting Type I and Type II diabetes. Type II market is about 10 times larger than Type I, and I was somewhat familiar with type II because LGND was already targeting the market with Targretin. Moreover, since Targretin synergized with TZDs, I was also somewhat familiar with Rezulin, as well as PPARs. The Phase III data was modestly positive for Type I and the significance seen at 6 months for Type II was gone at 12 months. I saw the press release as more bad news for Biotechs, and very bad news for AMLN. I was somewhat surprised at the posts on the AMLN board. The press release had come out Friday, but I believe that the stock was halted. Some of the posters expected the stock to open north of $20 (on Friday it was around $15) on Monday. I saw a major haircut at the open. I expect the data to be insufficient for filing. New trials would lead to delays, allowing oral medications to grab more of the market. I also was not convinced that the new data would be significantly better than the data in the press release. I posted those views and of course was attacked by AMLN posters. I stuck to my prediction, which was correct (AMLN plunged at the open, JNJ eventually pulled out, delays were announced, and the price eventually slid to 2 1/2 - it moved to single digits that Monday). Our nay sayer took issue with the prediction of a delay. Although a delay was not specifically mentioned in the press release, a lack of significance at 12 months would have to be addressed, which would lead to significant delays. After last summer, our nay sayer took up residence on the LGND board and most readers of this board know the rest of the story.

To: Hippieslayer who wrote (19158)	4/17/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

Some of our posters are just upset that their prediction for LGND's stock price (some as far back as 20 months ago, see posts #1 to #20) at or near $20 never hold. Its also interesting that while LGND has never held above $20 for long, the predictions get more grandious -- now we get predictions of triple digits!! ...and there's always a reason. This weeks reason is options expir (that excuse is used once a month), I wonder what will be the excuse next week? --Tony

To: Hippieslayer who wrote (19158)	4/17/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: John O'Neill	Respond to of 32384

I'm long 2,500 shares and almost bt more today (don't want to be greedy). The stock is acting well & I see this as a buying opportunity JO PS the only stock I like as much as LGND is MCDE