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Biotech / Medical : Vivus: into single digits -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BDR who wrote (220)	4/17/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: Colby	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1016

Dale, <<I hope you don't feel that you were attacked for posting here>> Absolutely not. I was appreciative of all 3 of you who posted, what I thought to be, intelligent, non attacking posts. <<With regard to revenue projections: what do you think the pricing for MUSE will be if it is approved outside the US? $20-$24/dose retail in a relatively wealthy country may fly, but what about elsewhere? And how long do you think Vivus can keep the price where it is in the face of Viagra at $8-9/dose? Caverject dropped 30%+ after the introduction of MUSE>> Good question, Dale. Here's my take. First, in relation to PFE's $8-9 pill, I don't know think VVUS can compete on a price basis. Then again, I don't know if they really need to. My feeling (not completely thought out yet) is that if VVUS takes the people who don't respond to PFE, the pricing is not going to matter. It only matters for those who are choosing between one or the other. I don't know what portion of VVUS sales are going to come from "beating" PFE. However, the flip side is, at least here in the US, the insurances are paying for most of the costs of most of the patients, which will ease the burden. 40% of 22 is $8.80 which isn't a lot to pay for sex (Hookers cost a lot more (gg)) . This isn't an antibiotic you have to take 3 times a day. I am guessing for most it may be used anywhere between 2 and 10 times a month. I agree, it can get expensive, but it were me, I'd skip meals if I had to. As far as other countries go, so far, most have the approvals of been for western countries w/ pretty strong economies (The south american approvals may be a different story, but never underestimate the power of the latin blood). I don't know how insurance works in some of these countries. I would think in countries with socialized medicine it would be great, but I don't think there are too many of those. In the UK, people don't seem to mind the price. According to VVUS, they got 24% of the market share in their first month (I don't know what the total market is), but it does indicate people are willing to pay for it. Remember, the 3 basic drives for humans, food, sleep, and sex, not necessarily in that order. I, agree, though, head to head, PFE does have the cost advantage, and we all know money talks. Fortunately, they are differentiated products. We will see. Thanks for bringin' up that point, Colby