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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (2382)	4/17/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 11051

re deep in-the-money LEAPS - I started to follow Juri insomuch I move off farther into the future and closer to money. Fact is those beasts just dont mind me. Example: SAP 2000 bought at the money (700DM) two months ago app, now comfortably deep in the money with SAP at 900. Similar Ahold Call (thanks tommy again). At the moment theres nothing available (except Microsoft 2000 @ 85 which I have) that would go beyond 1999. Sure sign of - well - rough times coming. Janko

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (2382)	4/17/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Steve XIV, re. leaps first: I'm not sure what I can recommend. I "published" my overall-performance hoping to hear who was more or less successful with his strategy. This could be a great help to me when I read about other ways to invest to weight what I read. I hope I will get sometimes a feedback - but of course, that's everybodies very private decision, if and what he gives free from his very private secrets. Cause I'm not "scientific" enough to dig deep in theory, all I can say is pure feeling without enough feedback allowing to compare. Now to your question - with all my bad feelings why I cannot be sure, if and where I make shit or not: How long? IMO better too long. I just picked a PFE-call, the price-difference between 99 and 00 was about $3 related to contract-fees of about $20 - thats not much money for a full year more hope. I know - one could argue, I did like hedging, but I pay a lot more for a uncertain hope. But these are different thinks, cause normally I get the up of longer options back when I sell. So it's nearly for free. What hope for? From now to Jan99 is not that long. If you're sure about a summer-high, you can spare money buying Aug-calls. If not, when shall your selling-point be achieved? Jan,15th? Too hot for me. I like it - as I posted sometimes - to sell long before the leap expires. In best case we are in long leaps during a rally - nothing is better. When the greed hits the market, longterm-leaps increase far beyond every reason. Look at Dell-leap-prices last August, and you know what I mean. What price for? I disagree with Janko in this point "deep in the money". "Deep in the money" is very expensive - and the same time I would miss the leverage I hope to get playing options. But for me more important is, that I use leaps due to "limit‚ le d‚gas" (don't know how to write it). Paying 30% of the underlying, there's left a lot of risk. The way I choose "my" call is very simple: I check the contractprice-steps related to the "at"-steps. Example: I like to pay 1 buck for 5, but not 3. So I search the point where - in my very personal opinion - the stuff seems to get "cheap". As everybody can deduct, this leads to options which are just not loved by the market. Sometimes I sell despite I assume the underlying keeps soaring, only for taking money out of the risk. I substitute expensive leaps by cheaper ones - out of the money. (so I did with Intel before the warning) The "new" investment is "financed" by the up-to-this-day-win, and I have "new" buying-power for other games. That's a huge response for a short question, sorry. Let me close with my - related to all I read from you all - most important feeling - maybe also a critical clue: When you try to calculate like engineers, using mathematics, before you play a tennis-ball, you will get the ball in your eye. (after this you can measure the blue-tone and calculate the speed of the ball) If someone of you should have a worse performance than me, it's time to use more our natural resources. I read a lot about "learning". If this means "understanding" in a logical way, I agree. If this means, calculations, rules, fixed strategies - I'm sure that cannot work - or we had no exchange-markets anymore. Sorry for that "teaching"-taste. You know so much more than me, it's ashaming. But I have this feeling - what can I do? Jury PS: Thanks to spellchecking I just learned the writing of "engineers" - understanding, that this is coming from "engine" while the German word "Ingenieur" comes from the Latin "ingenere". Now I know where the difference between a Camaro and a Porsche is coming from. :)