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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4108)	4/17/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: Bhag Karamchandani	Respond to of 6136

A strategic perspective on AGPH valuation: ( I am not, personaly speaking, an investor): Plug-in : 1)growth of PI market ( three to five year horizon); 2)market share, and rate of growth in market share, for Viracept ; 3) weigh in suitability of Viracept as the PI of first choice for the "AIDS COCKTAIL"; and 4) discount the R&D expenses -assume no new drug approvals, R & D estimated at 4 cents per share as posted earlier , assuming this figure is correct). Conclusion: The stock appears to be fundamenatlly undervalued, although only relatively so,compared to other biotechs. Regarding the recent sell-off : announcement of increasing successive quarterly earnings followed by sell offs seems to be a remarkable, and by now fairly predictable feature of this stock. Mysterious forces???? To balance the above: AGPH has YET to demonstrate its scientific mettle. Acquiring Viracept was an act of serendipity ( getting fast approval and gaining market share, despite the formidable marketing muscle of their competitors wasn't). I remain a follower of AGPH beacuse of its unrealized potential. AG 3340 may be the first real indicator of the commercial viability of their research. Thymatiq, apparently didn't. Good Luck to all of you. PS :Margie: Thanks for your invaluable contributions to the thread.