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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3198)	4/18/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

All; I have just returned from my week in Japan and have caught up with the postings. Its quite something to read a weeks worth of postings on this thread. In doing so, for some reason, you get an even better sense of the collective intelligence and powers of observation represented here. "Chopped liver, Hannah the Ant Lady, religions based on dentistry, and Indian cheesecake photos"... incredible! I am reminded of stories I have read of the Algonquin round table. I had a chance to talk with several businessmen in Tokyo this past week. Everyday there were new headlines regarding the local economy. Almost to the person, the people I spoke with seemed resigned to the notion that the contraction would worsen. Two business plans I was involved with this past week (most Japanese businesses are just starting their new fiscal years) feature a forecasted revenue decline of 14% and 17% respectively (high tech manufacturing systems in both cases). While most that I spoke to expressed some level of dissatisfaction with the bureaucracy it was surprisingly mild (cultural?). Most that I spoke with felt that any level of tax cut would not likely spur spending. In addition, many I talked to spoke of the excess of 10 years ago as if it were a lesson learned. I roamed a couple of department stores and really could not discern any obvious evidence of decreased spending. Traffic seemed as high as usual and the prices seemed so also. Subway and train stations were still very much crowded. I was treated to a dinner and karaoke session one evening and almost the entire staff was invited. There were still bottles of whiskey purchased and the food was lavish. Three persons (that I know well enough to feel some comfort with the question) felt they would likely increase savings in foreign markets. All three said it would likely consist partially of U.S. mutual funds. Of the folks I spoke with all are still gainfully employed. Several have just completed record earnings years in their companies. As nearly as I can tell, except for new found freedom in investing, all carry on as they always have. Little seems to have changed in the way business is done except that one company I spoke with had mandated that all travel be done in coach class. To be sure I was nearly alone in business class during my flights to and fro. Yet there is an undertone of fatalism in my conversations. Many spoke of the need for the government to act more swiftly and decisively but I sensed none felt it would. Perhaps this fatalism was most profoundly underscored when I learned that my hotel room was two doors away from the room that a Japanese executive chose to commit suicide in just a few weeks ago. Best, Stitch