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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (52944)	4/17/1998 5:30:00 PM
From: Rocky Reid	Respond to of 58324

>>Does anyone on this thread seriously believe that IOM will triple in the next sixteen months?<< Yes. I do. Triple downward, as in 1/3. This gives a price of $2.37. Mark your calendars.

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (52944)	4/17/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Bill Lin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58324

Can IOM triple in 16-18 months? yes, it can, if you start with $6.5 :) However, short term risk of it going to $4.50 is fairly high, especially if the market "corrects" in the next few months. But, if you listened to the CC, the professionalism from mgmt has increased. There are no longer denials. Yes, they put a positive spin on it, but as an intelligent person, you can discount the spin. Their materials mgmt really sucks. You can bet they paid a hefty premium for some parts to pull in for a demand that didn't exist. Remember KE's assertion of a 30 million production capacity? probably no one working 2nd shift right now. Overexpanded capacity, and crappy material purchasing. One of the questioners, wondered if the extra zip inventory was extra Disks. But couldn't get a clear answer from IOM. My guess is it was some disks, and some controller chips. Remember last year when controller chips were limiting items? Good news of course is that better material management will reduce the inventory levels over next 2 qtrs. Bad news is the advertising commitment still outstanding. Never agreed with it fully. Glad TV ads will go soon. Pushing incentives in the OEm channel makes more sense. $100mm for 10mm zip drives is a good $10 discount to OEMs! Oh well, I hope they can make the zip drive real cheap to produce. But they DO have 2 qtrs of hard work ahead. So going back to your 18 month question, thats 6 qtrs. 2 bad qtrs, then 4 good ones, can bring the long term price back. And yes, the risk is very healthy. BL