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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1770)	4/17/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Does anyone have access to analysis of the seperate units to be broken up for example population current lines expected growth current cash flow?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1770)	4/17/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: Mayer Tchelebon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

While TBR's weight on the index was reduced by 1.3%, Telesp's was increased by the same amount. Since eventually we will own Telesp directly you can look at this as breakeven (??)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1770)	4/19/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: jeremy smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Steve, personally feel the re-weighting of the Bovespa index has virtually ZERO price impact. (1): we all knew this was coming. There are no surprises here. (2): As I think the article that somebody posted says, the index is re-weighted every 4 months based on historical traded volume. Thus, this re-weighting simply reflects what the market has already been doing......namely concentrating a little more on Telesp at the expense of telebras. In a sense then, I view the re-weighting as a REACTION to past market moves...and not a CAUSE of future moves. Re Motta - just to stress again my thinking. He has zero influence now on Telebras sell-off. He is though KEY at a macro level to securing cross party support for Cardoso's reform programme. In no way are Cardoso's re-election chances hurt (I still think this is a slam dunk) - but Motta's passing WILL mean that the president will be short of a major ally, and WILL have to work harder. All told though, and not wishing to be too morbid, I have to say that surely the market will not now be surprised if Motta were to pass away. I think it is safe to assume that much of the damge has been priced-in. Not all of it, but certainly most of it. Jeremy