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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (27506)	4/18/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

I look forward to MB's answer on this one, Chris. Right on about it not being enough to have just an extreme valuation or poor fundamentals. Sometimes stocks which by comparison have much better fundamentals than AOL, YHOO and MU come down hard. YHOO was overvalued at 60. I've read of people being short there and refusing to give in -- golly, what a prescription for destruction. Here's another question: MB. Is it sometimes easier to locate put opptys among less mainstream or closely followed stocks? Premiums sure seem "higher" on the favorites for the same amount of volatility.

To: valueminded who wrote (27506)	4/19/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Chris, You ask some good questions. First, specifically, I was not recommending puts on Worldcom. I was having a laugh at a guy who defended his purchase of this bloated concept stock as a "value" play. I don't have puts on WCOM or the Internet stocks you mentioned for the same reason. They are up for no reason and I don't see a reason for them to back away from the euphoria that investors have for them. Like Presstek and AOL, you can lose a lot of money buying puts on overpriced fluff just because it is overpriced. I finally made money on PRST, but I suffered a lot first. What I look for is potential for public humiliation. The fact that Compaq's eps were phony for several quarters did my puts no good at all. The suckers believed the fantasies they put on paper and not the reality of the market. But, once they couldn't fake it any more, and the drop in eps was too large even to blame on the DEC takeover (I am convinced that faking the eps was at least part of the reasoning behind that deal), they had to confess that, heh, heh, they weren't really making any money. And, though the bulls keep it fluffed up above where it would be in a real market, it has fallen solidly since that time. The same was true for MU and Atmel, though I never really thought of ATML as oozing slime. So, predicting that the business will not meet market expectations is the key to which stocks I hate. But trying to figure out when they will have to admit the fact to the gullible public is the more difficult part. That usually means I am either early or wrong, which is why I have the 90/10 system. Sometimes the cos. even go public with the bad news and nothing happens, as in the case of Coke. But, most of the time they try to spin it, and when they get caught, it is disaster. Right now, I like several cos where the business stinks and the cos, along with pet analysts, are spinning stories. These don't include the networking stocks because, for the most part, there are no real businesses. The stock valuations are hype and what can destroy hype? Usually getting real business and having it not do so hot, and most of the networkers are off in the future on that one. With pricey stock, they can generate cash fairly easily, so they are not likely to go broke before they become real businesses. And, as that failure is off in the future a bit, I am holding off. Besides, too many people hate them right now. Mike Murphy, Barron's, etc. The bulls love to spit in their faces. MB

To: valueminded who wrote (27506)	4/19/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

chris, i don't understand amzn. probably b/c it doesn't make sense. check out this website that offers a guaranteed 5% discount over amzn and b&n... cmpexpress.com here's another comparison website (psssst, amzn is RARELY the lowest cost seller) acses.com $2 billion. $3 billion. $4 billion. what is the difference? not much, imho. if i had more available cash i would begin buying leaps (1 - 2 years out) at $10-15 intervals up. i don't have the cash. this company will be low double digits. just don't know when. people like the idea and are buying it b/c it sounds good. since nobody is using their critical analysis ability they buy and buy more, i guess. nutso...