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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (16797)	4/18/1998 1:31:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Lisa; RE> stock down puts down stock up puts up and all kinds of things in between... ---------------------- Yes that's not the general rule but it happens much more than most people think.. I use to play AOL a lot..and the options were not always tied to the stock price as some people will tell you they are. Options are a market of their own and have a supply/demand side that at times and on the whims of the people in them that is not always the same as the stock.. nor do they conform to volatility in any set way. One set of options on the same stock may move in a way that the others don't..it's all in the mindlessness or mindset of the people in that particular pool. --------------------- To some extent my race track experance qued me in on that.. like on any given race you have "pools" Win , Place , Show, and the excotics...odds are based on the "pool" of people in each one and how they bet in each one..it's not systematic and nor are options. Programs that do options can not read the whims of the players in each pool..or take into account what say one big player might do to the pool if they decide to roll up/down or out. Options are more thinly traded as a rule and can be much more volatile than the stock..or less so at times.. ---------------------------- What I did this last time is not my style at all , I just happened on it and saw a good spread ( risk wise ) and gave it a shot as I had looked at simular ones several times. Had xcit went the way I thought it would from the start I would have made some money as it was cut to pay off if she went down and break even if she went up, but not really my style at all. ------------------------------- I normally look for the pool size ( OI ) prefering larger pools then chart the option it self..against the stock..as they are not systematic with all options but the larger pools behave in a way that is more predictable..know what the majority of the people in the options (pool ) actually paid for them can only be done if you chart the option..by getting in well under them you have an edge..that edge saves your butt if the stock don't do what you thought it would..the way I try to get in them (out of the money ) and if the stock does any kind of reverse.. the die hards who are already losing will grab more to average down.. then wham I'm out..I know this for a fact its not some half baked theory, heck I use to be one of thoes mullets, and have since learned to use it, and the new mullets keep coming. --------------------- In fact just writing about makes me feel I might be shooting myself in the foot a little..but for the most part when I've explained it before people who don't know fraz about gambling try to take it apart or play one up-man ship with it. ----------------------- I quit school early and never was to bright except in arithmatic there I was in my eliment..why on tests I liked to be at the front and get them fist and before the teacher could get all the papers handed and could sit back down I would make a big show of handing mine in.. If she put a series of problems on the board I had the answers before she could finnish as I could see were she was going with them. The problem came because they did not like my show off attitude..and wanted me to show them the worked out answers well all that writing would not let me do them as fast as I did..as most was done in my head with just a sort of reminder scratched on the paper at times that of course didn't make any sence to any one but me..none the less I had my own way of double checking too..and never missed any , that frustrated the teachers even more. ----------------------------- I use to think I was a genus or something but late in life I discovered I was not all that bright but just loved numbers and math. I guess it came from my child hood ( about 5 & 6) were my uncle used me to collect the bets in the neighborhood, he was a numbers bookie, and I served the beer at the weekend card games in the cellar, and made lots of tips..<G> and learned to count money at a very early age, along with a few other tricks. Like the service got real good and special when someone won the pot..the winner got served at least twice..both first and last..<G> what a con I was, well most of it did me little good, you know what they say easy come easy go..I don't even want to count all the fair weather friends I bought during my hey days. ( whats the right use of that term, hey days or hay days ? ).. Well so much for my options style..and the way I figure the ones that will skew the best on a reverse..has more to do with the whims of the people in the pool...and taht can most often be READ by looking at the chart on the particular strike price..BUT it's not TA in the same sense that the normal TA people use ..I'm really looking for pain to exploit. ( kinda rotten of me hu ) But I keep in mind I did not cause the pain..and in some cases eased it. ----------------------------- I promised my self I would not get into this again untill I got some help with writing and did a book on how to milk the mullets, but from time to time I can't help showing off. Jim P.S. A mullet is a somewhat esoteric term used by the old school of gamblers as a euphemism for sucker. <G> I don't know the real history of it.