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Technology Stocks : Excite [XCIT], an exciting stock to own in 1999! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Candle stick who wrote (1476)	4/17/1998 10:59:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Respond to of 3183

oh I thought your negative 8 was for today after the close and I didnt think they would be trading today... thanks for the explanation on the tulip deal...put the pic on my profile...now I have to see if I can find an animated windmill.

To: Candle stick who wrote (1476)	4/18/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 3183

.I highly recommend reading it. BUT PLEASE, don't buy it at AMZN, I am short that stock also. Candlestick, I buy all my books at AMZN and I'm helping you by doing so. AMZN loses money on every order and, therefore, the more you order the more they bleed ;-]. I'm also short XCIT (have been for some time and added more during this recent insanity). Below are a couple of quotes that come close to summarizing my reasoning (especially the 2nd one). I don't not expect internet mania to die over night & there may be some companies here that are strong survivors, but we are way too early in this cycle to support the values assigned to even those companies, let alone all the trash that is floating with them. I do not put XCIT among the trash, however, in the next few months, I expect it to return to its fair value (about $15). Any long who has enjoyed the ride from the bottom to the top of XCIT will tell this story for a long time (I have similar tales from the early seventies in the previous IPO mania days, one was a ride from $5 to $260 in three weeks on a company that was bankrupt in two years) but these are once-in-a-lifetime stories. Take the money and run! Excite said on a conference call yesterday that it may have difficulty integrating Classifieds2000 Inc., a startup that allows Internet users to search online classified listings for real estate, personal ads and other categories. Excite bought the closely held company earlier this month. ''When you add a company losing money to another company losing money, you lose money,'' Buyer said. Excite is still on track to break even in the third quarter, she said, though she warned, ''They'll have to work very, very hard.'' news.com Equally skeptical is David Simons, managing director of Digital Video Investments, an institutional research firm. "There's going to be a blindside here," he says. "Only because there's absolutely no consideration of risk....All you here is the potential is limitless. To which I say, the pitfalls are bottomless." As a sign of how shaky the underlying business of the Internet is, Simons estimates that more than a third of all advertising on the Internet is supported by companies whose basic business can't support those ad expenditures. Instead, he says, they're being funded by money raised from venture capitalists, initial public offerings of stock and secondary offerings. When this ready capital runs out, he says, it could have a seismic effect on businesses such as Yahoo! and America Online (AOL:NYSE), which are banking on advertising income for future growth. They'll likely have to renegotiate multi-year advertising deals, Simons says. "It's almost going to be the Internet equivalent of the bad banking loans of the early 1990s," Simons says. "But unfortunately, there's no Federal Internet Advertising Insurance Corporation." thestreet.com Kip