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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (9568)	4/18/1998 1:48:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

I agree. When its necessary to release some hype because the price is falling (outside of a market correction) AOL will do it. At the end of the day, most companies, despite individual specific considerations relative to their segment, are only as good as their management. Further, with good stocks, management is even more important, because they concentrate not only on the bottom line, but also the management of the stock price. AOL take care of both these things and are destined to be around for a long time. Personally, I also think they will start making some acquisitions to maintain the momentum ... but we'll see about that in days to come !!. Good luck to all Stephen

To: H James Morris who wrote (9568)	4/18/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 13594

Thanks for thinking out loud with us. Really. I've heard some say the same thing about AMZN. However, at this point I think that all of these stocks are so overpriced that if one could afford to buy leap puts on all of them -- it wouldn't matter who the winner is since the winner might only be able to justify its current market cap many years hence even if it thrives. The others ... well ... AOL has momentum. User's eyes. Brand name. In other industries these have been very important for the future, but I keep looking for real barriers to entry in this business -- the same thing that you discussed with AMZN. Is the everything under one roof going to reign in the end? Why shouldn't the future consist of several different kinds of providers: some content, some sales and some basic services? The technology to take content to the web is not that expensive, is it? Telcos have big pockets but haven't moved in for the kill while continuing to suffer from the required expansion of their networks from the internet traffic, but they are starting to partner with others. FCC has sat on the sidelines afraid to kill what appears to be economically a young golden goose, but they know that they will have to deal with the problem in some way as internet telephony evolves because the growth of "non-voice" traffic is growing by leaps and bounds. My conclusion: Way too early to vote AOL as a winner of anything or believe that it will go out of existence either, but it is reasonable to expect it to see more intense competition from both broad-based and niche players. Sustainable profitability looks very iffy to me. I think that AOL has been smart to introduce "bring your own access" because providing the ISP service cannot be where the big dollars will be made in the future. Some rambling thoughts.