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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (3055)	4/19/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: Allen Benn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10309

>as the end of the qtr approaches, any idea on what we should be looking forward to? I expect between 16 and 17 cents a diluted share in earnings. I also expect continuation of an upbeat outlook for future quarters, unlike many high tech stocks embroiled in the Asian turmoil or sector slowdowns. Further, I would expect that the Microsoft monkey to be shaken from WIND's back at the H&Q Technology Conference, and that that WIND's inaugural user's conference mid-May will be uplifting. WIND has been buffeted by many crosswinds over the last year or so, but its performance never deviated from the course. Aided by the H&Q analyst's misstatements about the importance of basing pRISM+ exclusively (sort of) on CORBA, WIND's stock price took a hit starting last summer. However, WIND's stellar performance and uplifting news offset investor despondency, and the stock price wended its way nearly to its all-time highs, only to buffeted by the Microsoft threat emerging stronger than ever at the ESC in San Jose. Later, the Asian crisis coupled with indications that I2O needs time to become pervasive in the vast infrastructure of computer I/O, served to slowly unwind the PE ratio, and establish WIND as a trading stock, with seemingly predictable swings. Microsoft's formidable presence re-surfaced at the Chicago ESC, and in the news the following week, once again with the result of knocking WIND stock price back into the mid-thirties. When stock historians look back at opportunities for buying WIND, particularly during its 1997/1998 consolidation, they will highlight the ample clues in announcements about VxWorks underpinning major endeavors. Specifically, they will note: Digita for digital imagery operating systems; Adobe and EFII for printer operating systems; JetSend for consumer product connectivity; NCI for Enhanced TV; and I2O for I/O processors. I can visualize Peter Lynch Junior saying, "Investors were given all the hints necessary to understand that the software paradigm had changed, in effect releasing Microsoft's hold on all the world's operating systems. The fact that the market appeared to ignore the announcements was no excuse for investors to disregard their importance. The announcements presaged the end of Microsoft's dominance, and should have been interpreted correctly at the time." If you don't see precisely what I'm alluding to, be patient. I'll try to explain the paradigm shift in a subsequent post. By the way, Ramsey, it is nice to see your rekindled interest in the thread. In the light of all that has happened over the last couple years, do you still think QCOM will exhibit less volatility than WIND? (In your wildest dreams, did you ever expect to see QCOM's P/E dip below 30 in your lifetime?) Allen