We LONGs Are All Idiots... Clearly...
No, we have not one moment of reflection about the recent
run-up of SEEK and XCIT.
No, we're just momentum players who got in at, say, $10 or
$18 when, gee, there was SO VERY MUCH MOMENTUM... I mean SEEK
had so much momentum going for it back in the $10-12 range
that it was giving certain Norwegian glaciers a run for their money.
Yes, we're just sluts for HYPE. Love it. 'Cause that's all
this whole e-commerce and revenue-sharing thing is all about,
right? I mean, it's NOT a sea-change in the nature of commerce.
Oh, definitely not. And there isn't something called revenue-sharing
that XCIT's CEO has identified equal $3 for every $1 of traditional
advertising banner sales. And advertisers aren't clammering to
get on board this cyber-phenomenon because of its potential, being
realized by the day, for more sophisticated direct marketing.
And there aren't now tens of thousands of new under-a-grand PCs
being shipped out to middle-income households who want to get
on the Web.
For some of the unreflective LONGs on this thread--some
who've been in a stupor since, say, $4 a share--it's REALLY tiresome
to hear the same old arguments trotted out about SEEK. Of
course, you're welcome to repeat them. But, we'll be talking
past each other, I'm afraid.
You know, there as a point at which HYPE is, in reality,
forecasting. And with Web usage and e-commerce exploding around
you, you might want to look a little harder at the hype. Let's
see, the idiot and atavistic Andy Grove, for example, in this
week's BW, says he's still learning and trying to figure out
what kind of dramatic shifts will happen to marketing and commerce
when, sooner than later, we have, in his words, "a billion
connected computers." (Get this, HE's still learning. I love
that. Not that I've been a fan of his. But, I like that attitude.)
All of that said, we emotional and apparently ignorant
LONGs, could well see SEEK in the mid-20's again. Sure, there
are a set of circumstances that I could see triggering that
scenario. But, for me, that would be a marvelous cue to scoop
up more.
I would ask, and this is entirely up to you, that before
you just make broad characterizations of SEEK or SEEK LONG-holders,
you might oughta investigate the company, its industry, and the
social and business context that it lives in. (You may want
to visit SI's E-commerce thread and read up about what the
Dept. of Commerce and others saying about this suspect field.)
FUNDAMENTALS won't show you ANYTHING (or much) at this stage in a developmental situation.
They MAY become relevant once we cross into positive earnings territory.
(SEEK's expected to do so by Q4. I'm betting it's sooner.) Right
now, though, SEEK is very much a story-in-the-making: with
international deals happening, a revamped management team that's
barely been on board for a year, a terrifically wise "online
community" purchase, growing advertising revenues, etc.
Finally, if you're not comfortable with the HYPE and see
danger signals all around you, DON'T INVEST IN SEEK or XCIT
or ITVU or CKFR or WAVO or YHOO for that matter. There is a company called XON you may want
to look at. It's fed my Uncle Harry and Aunt Vivian for years.
However, if your game is simply SHORTING, and you hope
to influence others to sell (a wan hope, at best; but something
I've seen time and time again on various threads), I'm afraid
you're out of luck here.
In any case, I wish you nothing but success with your
investments.
Best Regards,
c m
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