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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Larry S. who wrote (1577)4/18/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11568
 
Larry "Flips"

a great way to make money if one is good and/or lucky

a huge pain to do the bookeeping on

I think we should stay with short term trades

unless you or someone else would like to volunteer to do the bookeeping; in which case we could start a second ZFlipPortfolio

and maybe a ZOptionPort
and a ZForLifeLongHoldPort

seriously, lets try to maintain what we have and make every attempt to improve on it as best as we can

with the exception of Last Shadows's recent "real" portfolio this is the only "close to real life/honest trading portfolio" that I know of; on SI or any other place

where all can see the good, the bad, the great, and the ugly;
and can learn from others; without a lot of BS

I get tired of reading posts from people that always buy at the bid, sell at the ask, buy only at the 10 year bottom that lasted for all of 8 seconds before turning and going up 27.62% the next day, hold a big winner to within 1/16 of the all time high, at which time they were astute enough to not only sell their long but to go short at the same price, and were brilliant enough to have sold their long position at 3:59 the day before a big bad earnings warning

PS
damn, it feels good to vent
if I keep posting all weekend maybe the gremlins will find another host



To: Larry S. who wrote (1577)4/18/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: DanZ  Respond to of 11568
 
OXY, BAY, stops, and the Z thread.

Larry,

My personal opinion on BAY is that it should be held because it looks like a reversal candidate. The stock traded below the lower daily bollinger band on Friday and then closed strongly above it. This is indicative of a bottom and I think it has potential to the upper daily bollinger band near 30. The stochastic and RSI are also on buy signals. If we didn't own BAY right now, I would buy it so why sell it? It's your call since you are the sponsor but I recommend that we hold it.

OXY is a different story but I would hold it as well. The stock is trading very close to the upper daily bollinger band but the bands have narrowed considerably in the past week as the volatility has gone down significantly. The bollinger bands are now at 28 5/8 (lower) and 30 1/8 (upper). Given the chart pattern, I think it is much more likely to break daily resistance and trade to the upper weekly bollinger band near 31. The stock is already trading above the upper monthly bollinger band so I don't see much resistance past 31. I don't like this stock as much as BAY but I think it's worth holding for a little while longer to see if it breaks out on the daily chart. I would go with a stop and let the market takes us out if it breaks down. How about 28 1/2?

I also disagree with setting stops based on a fixed percentage from one's entry price although that is just a personal opinion. Every trade is different and I don't think one can set stops based on a fixed percentage. I don't use stops much, but when I do I prefer to set them based on technical analysis and not some arbitrary percentage.

As for the Z thread, I haven't been posting as much recently because there is a lack of participation from others. Oftentimes I post something and don't get any feedback and it makes me wonder why I took the time to do it. Not only that, but if others aren't going to share their ideas then it makes me hesitant to share my ideas. I think part of the problem is that many of us have different time horizons and the day traders prefer IRC. While this is certainly understandable, we need more communication on the Z thread to keep it going. As I posted a few weeks ago, my average holding period is 26 days and I do very little day trading. I like your idea of setting aside $50k for day trading because it should bring in more participation from those who prefer to day trade.

Dan