To: Larry S. who wrote (1577 ) 4/18/1998 2:24:00 PM From: DanZ Respond to of 11568
OXY, BAY, stops, and the Z thread. Larry, My personal opinion on BAY is that it should be held because it looks like a reversal candidate. The stock traded below the lower daily bollinger band on Friday and then closed strongly above it. This is indicative of a bottom and I think it has potential to the upper daily bollinger band near 30. The stochastic and RSI are also on buy signals. If we didn't own BAY right now, I would buy it so why sell it? It's your call since you are the sponsor but I recommend that we hold it. OXY is a different story but I would hold it as well. The stock is trading very close to the upper daily bollinger band but the bands have narrowed considerably in the past week as the volatility has gone down significantly. The bollinger bands are now at 28 5/8 (lower) and 30 1/8 (upper). Given the chart pattern, I think it is much more likely to break daily resistance and trade to the upper weekly bollinger band near 31. The stock is already trading above the upper monthly bollinger band so I don't see much resistance past 31. I don't like this stock as much as BAY but I think it's worth holding for a little while longer to see if it breaks out on the daily chart. I would go with a stop and let the market takes us out if it breaks down. How about 28 1/2? I also disagree with setting stops based on a fixed percentage from one's entry price although that is just a personal opinion. Every trade is different and I don't think one can set stops based on a fixed percentage. I don't use stops much, but when I do I prefer to set them based on technical analysis and not some arbitrary percentage. As for the Z thread, I haven't been posting as much recently because there is a lack of participation from others. Oftentimes I post something and don't get any feedback and it makes me wonder why I took the time to do it. Not only that, but if others aren't going to share their ideas then it makes me hesitant to share my ideas. I think part of the problem is that many of us have different time horizons and the day traders prefer IRC. While this is certainly understandable, we need more communication on the Z thread to keep it going. As I posted a few weeks ago, my average holding period is 26 days and I do very little day trading. I like your idea of setting aside $50k for day trading because it should bring in more participation from those who prefer to day trade. Dan