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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Byers who wrote (18884)	4/19/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Same data, different interpretation. The focus on this thread the last few weeks has been solely on the disasterous SEA problems. Here is my take on the situation. 1) The current low book to bill , .80 is a result of a financial liquidity problem in SEA. It is not the result of a technology dryup or lack of demand for top notch products. 2) US market liquidity has never been better. And by default a good portion of that money will default to quality tech stocks such as AMAT, KLAC, and Cohu. This in itself will keep AMAT in the 32 to 35 dollar range. 3) The DOW 9000 is mostly a result of it being reconfigured last year. Kicking out Westinghouse and adding HWP and WalMart probably added 500points to the DOW. If this is done every two years or so we could have a DOW 20000 in another decade. 4)Has it crossed anyones mind that AMAT made more money last quarter than CPQ and AOLcombined will make all year. That AMAT's bad year is better than most companies best year. 5) Where would GM's stock price be if they sold 27% more product this year than last year and their BTB waS ONLY .80 (the price of GM stock would be $327&9/16). 6) Someone had commented on this thread that the longest suppression of the BTB below 1 was seven months. This I belive is significant. 7) Can anyone name a national financial crises that had persisted beyond one year. (Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Poland, & Russia all fail the test) Why should Korea be any different! 8)Just as notice of cancellations of plant expansions came in droves (group think) so will announcements of plant expansions (group think revisited) 9) Tom Kurlak is having less and less effect on this entire group. One homerun does not a ballgame make. In the mean while try this Buy AMAT in the 33-34 dollar range and put in a sell for a like number of shares at a limit of 38. Do this with one half of your position until the weather becomes clearer. Remember, This advice is worth exactly what you paid for it. Have a good week.......Jerome