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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (16851)	4/19/1998 12:40:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Bonnie; and ALL ..I have not finished with the data in my CAP weighted Mega/tail DOW index as of yet..just back to March 27th so far..and need to do more..how ever this much is clear. Market cap in the top 10 DOW mega caps peaked APRIL 3rd.. and is down 2%...the 21 smaller ones that only represent about half the market cap of the Top 10 is up 4%.., which shows the smaller caps have the Index pushed up..but the total market cap of the Dow is about the same as it was on the 3rd when it was 8983.41...the gist of this is that with the index now at 9167 it's most 200 pts higher than it was with the same market cap it had. ------------------------- But the divergence is not as bad as it was on the 13th.. and so it has improved a little since the 13th.. It looks like if it was going to break it had a real chance on the 13th..not that it might not still break..any bad news could cause an easy 200 to 400 pt drop, I got no idea at this time how much higher she can go before making that correction..but the trend in the market cap is going up at this time. ----------------------------- What I'm doing is looking at the Index and inside it.. market cap vs price..and dissecting the HUGE 10 ( i call the head, ( from the MID to SMALL 21 i call the tail.) I gets a little concerned when I see the tail strart leading the the head by very much..head going down but tail up enough to make the index look good ( based only on price ) while the over all market cap stays the same or falls.. This is not a forcast for a down turn as of yet.. but signals one could come if the Head don't lift more.. and being it is lifting some since the 13th ...it's like a toss up or more positive short term than negative but not by much, with an easy 200pt correction looking for an excuse to happen. ----------------------- So all that and I said mostly nothing..but keep some dry powder handy..and it's a little to soon to pull the trigger and short. I need to see the whites of their eyes better than this, as she has a good chance of going on up in spite of being over bought. Jim PS to clear it up just a little more on the 13th the head was down from the 3rd 2.4% as of the 17th it's only down 1.7% so the cap in the head has gained .7% since the 13th ..it's not gaining as fast as the tail..but it has pointed up..since the 13th while still down from the 3rd..i think it will have to drop below that 2.4% level to tigger a sell off as she has already ignored taht. <G> Like the 13th we skated right over the thin ice with no big problem..

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (16851)	4/19/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bonie, read this it is on top of about $360 billion of non performing loans in S. Korea, let aside the famine in N.Korea scmp.com If I am correct the Koreas and Indonesia have over 260 million people and the Philipines who is also on the brink due the El-Ninio draught around 70 to 80 million people and Vietnam about the same, as is Thailand and Malesya. So around 600 million people are on the brink. And China is the Wonderkind <ggg> It seems to me that the media just forgot about NIKEY 15,000 and SE. Asia. Short memories end in tears and blood on the streets WS I mean. BWDIK Haim