To: Bill Harmond who wrote (10340 ) 4/20/1998 12:49:00 AM From: Mike M Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
William- <<As Montgomery's David Readerman (Bill Gates' favored analyst) said in his reassessment of his previous hold rating, "We believe this operating leverage is sustainable because of the company's leadership in Internet-based search services.>> I am a firm believer in growth and grant you that YHOO is a marvelous emerging company....with bright prospects! Nor do I necessarily subscribe to the doom and gloomers who say MSFT will squash them...wing them a little, maybe, but squash? very doubtful! I merely feel that this valuation gives the company years, rather than months (due to discounted earnings), to disappoint. That is a lot to ask any company. This is particularly so in an environment where corporate earnings are tenuous and, consequently, advertisement dollars may be at risk. History is replete with analysts and investors attempts to justify bloated valuations based on future earnings. After an exhaustive search, I have not found one company who was ever awarded a 70 x sales price tag, let alone any that were proximately priced, that didn't end up getting many investors into serious hot water....Not even Bill Gates was ever asked to hold anything near that kind of valuation/sales! I noticed that in an earlier post you warned novices not to short YHOO...Good advice....I would add a corollary to that. IT IS NO WISER FOR NOVICES TO HOP ON BOARD OF THIS COMPANY AT THIS EVALUATION! I have read postings suggesting that institutional ownership will provide stability to the stock price. My experience suggests that nothing can be further from the truth. When the institutional investors stampede for the exits, marvelous companies are taken out and shot...No one is willing or able to stand in the way of that freight train. Will it happen? Neither you nor I know the answer to that....I only know that these prices are unprecedented! Enthusiastic analysts continue to throw huge growth numbers at the internet as if economic factors will have no play whatsoever! Where does a $6 1/2 Billion dollar company with $100 M in sales go from here? One possibility is that it will continue to discount future earnings ad infinitum (I find that doubtful), two is the price can wait for earnings to catch up and three is we can have an awakening to valuations and a severe correction...I find the latter to be the most plausible, albeit this is no prediction for Monday.... You have articulated your position well and I wish you no misfortune. I simply believe that until market cap more closely approximates sales and profit, this is no place for the feint of heart! Mike